The Coalition is set to promise a migration cut of about two-thirds, in a bid to head off One Nation
The Sydney Morning Herald reported on Monday that Angus Taylor would cut migration by two-thirds as the Coalition tries to stop its voters drifting to One Nation, and the Australian Financial Review said the Coalition would undercut Labor with a smaller target. Net overseas migration was 292,100 in the year to March 2026, down from 309,500 the year before and from a record 538,000 in 2022–23, according to published government figures. Labor's stated goal is 225,000 a year by 2028. Two-thirds off the latest figure implies about 100,000, but that is our arithmetic and the Coalition had not published a number at press time. The Guardian and The Age separately reported that One Nation will set up its headquarters in an $8 million Brisbane office bought by Gina Rinehart.
Both major parties now compete on a number that was almost never an election issue a decade ago. A smaller target changes demand for housing, the supply of students and workers, and the budget forecasts that assume steady arrivals.
If you employ temporary visa holders, or rent in a city with many students, the target matters to you directly. Nothing changes today: this is a policy promise from the Opposition, not law.
Migration has outrun housing and services for several years. A hard cap is the only measure voters will believe.
A target that low would be hard to meet without hurting universities, farms and care services that rely on migrants, and it chases One Nation instead of making a case.
Read the fine print when it is published: the period over which the cut would apply and whether it covers students and temporary workers matter more than the headline. The detail is expected this week.
DailyDrop Australia edition No. 1 · Morning · MON., OCT. 5, 2026