US inflation quickens on dearer petrol, and Federal Reserve officials differ on another rate rise
Reuters reported that US consumer prices accelerated in September on costlier gasoline, with core inflation, which strips out food and energy, firmer. It also said a call on a Federal Reserve rate rise looked tight as inflation heated up. Reuters quoted the Fed’s Collins as saying another rate rise is on the table before the end of 2026 and the Fed’s Bowman as saying there is time to wait and see before any more action. News.com.au ran a headline calling the economic data “a mess” for Donald Trump, without saying which data, and AP and Reuters reported a 3.6% rise in US Social Security payments for 2027. During Tuesday’s session the Herald reported Wall Street slipping and Reuters said chip stocks extended their slide. We have no confirmed index close, so we quote none.
US inflation shapes interest rates worldwide, including the Reserve Bank’s. A central bank that is still considering rate rises tends to keep the US dollar strong and keep borrowing costs up in other countries. The Social Security adjustment is tied to inflation, which is why the two stories come together.
If you hold a mortgage or are weighing a fixed rate, US inflation is one input to where Australian rates go, but not the only one. Currency and travel costs are also affected if the US dollar stays firm.
Hot data and a split Fed suggest more rate rises are coming, and investors should expect volatility.
Two officials disagreeing in public suggests the committee is nearer to pausing than to raising, and a one-month number is not a trend.
A split central bank is normal when the data is mixed. The Wednesday session on Wall Street was still open when we closed, so today’s reaction is what to look at. We will report the close when it is complete, not before.
DailyDrop Australia edition No. 11 · Morning · THU., OCT. 15, 2026