The IMF’s outlook is grim for Australian unemployment and inflation, and Chalmers blames global pressures
Nine’s news site reported late on Tuesday that Australia is projected to see one of the world’s worst rises in unemployment and in inflation. On Wednesday The Australian reported that Treasurer Jim Chalmers deflected the IMF report by blaming global inflationary pressures. Reuters separately reported that the IMF flagged risks to the global economy from a correction in AI markets, from war and from debt. The IMF’s own press-briefing transcripts for its Annual Meetings were in our feed, but we did not read them, so we quote no IMF figures. A Nine headline also said more than half of Australians blame Labor for the hit to their pockets, and The Australian ran a headline saying the housing slump is to end in a year.
An international body projecting Australia among the weaker performers on jobs and prices gives the Opposition a talking point and pressures the Reserve Bank (RBA), which has already raised rates four times, according to a Switzer Daily headline. Mr Chalmers’s reply, that the pressures are global, is the standard defence of any treasurer.
If you have a variable-rate mortgage, the outlook is a reminder that rates and prices are still being pushed by forces beyond Canberra. Read the IMF’s tables yourself before relying on a summary; the Fund publishes its outlook free online.
The IMF’s numbers suggest Australia’s mix of policy settings is leaving it more exposed than its peers, and the government should answer directly.
The Treasurer’s argument is that inflation is a global shock, and a forecast made in the middle of a war cannot be pinned on one government.
Without the forecast’s numbers, we do not take a side. What to watch is whether the Reserve Bank cites the IMF’s view at its next meeting, and how the government’s own forecasts compare with the Fund’s.
DailyDrop Australia edition No. 11 · Morning · THU., OCT. 15, 2026