Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) took 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula (PT) 45.16% in Sunday's first round, October 4. The two will meet in the runoff on October 25. Abstention was 21.6%, about 33 million voters, according to Agência Brasil. Lula lost votes in 25 states compared with 2022, according to a CNN Brasil calculation. Zema declared support for Flávio; allies of Caiado say he will do the same on Tuesday. Renan Santos will back no one and Cury promises silence. Lula said he is good at "knockout" contests and said he carries the "promiscuity" of the STF. The PT blames campaign strategist Sidônio Palmeira, and Reuters reports that Lula is considering Alckmin for the Finance Ministry. Trump called the result a "great victory" for Flávio but predicted a tight race.
A president running for reelection reaches the runoff in second place. The gap is small, and the contest now depends on who can win over the voters who abstained and the centrist vote.
The runoff is on October 25. Those who missed Sunday can vote normally. The coming days bring endorsements, debates and the first polls of the new stage.
Flávio has the lead, the backing of governors and a Congress further to the right; the election looks all but settled.
The gap is under two points, and Lula has already turned around tough elections; the 33 million abstentions are an open field.
The line that sums up the day is Lula's about the STF. For the first time, the president tries to distance himself from the Court that was an ally in his first term. Watch whether the PT changes its marketing this week and who speaks first for the center: Alckmin, Caiado or the market itself.
Agência Brasil · G1 · Folha · Estadão · O Globo · CNN Brasil · Valor (all 10/5) · Reuters (cited) · vote percentages per B3/InvestNews, based on the TSE
Flávio Bolsonaro leaves the first round ahead of Lula. The two return to the polls on October 25
With the ballots counted, the PL senator took 47.03% of the valid votes and the president 45.16%. On the first day of the new campaign, Flávio added the backing of Zema; Lula blamed the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and his own marketing for the slow start.
The presidential election will go to a runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) on Sunday, October 25. In the count completed Sunday night, Flávio had 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula 45.16%, according to figures released by the press from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The president, a candidate for reelection, finishes the first stage in second place, a result that surprised the international press and the PT campaign itself. Abstention rose to 21.6%, equivalent to 33 million voters, according to Agência Brasil; Ceará had the lowest rate in the country, 15.5%. CNN Brasil calculated that Lula lost votes in 25 states compared with the first round of 2022. Half of the governors elected on Sunday backed Flávio already in the first round. In Rio, according to O Globo, Flávio won in Barra and Campo Grande, and Lula won in Laranjeiras, Leblon and Copacabana; in Salvador, Lula was ahead in every electoral zone, according to G1. Among the 100 richest agribusiness municipalities, Flávio beat Lula in 83, according to Estadão. The runoff campaign officially restarted at 5 p.m. this Monday, and campaign broadcast time on radio and TV returns to the air on October 9.
The race for endorsements began early. Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo), who ran for president, declared his vote for Flávio and said he could not “sit on the fence.” Allies of Ronaldo Caiado said he will announce support for the PL candidate on Tuesday in Goiânia, where Flávio is expected to go in person. Renan Santos ruled out backing either of the two, and Cury, who came third, spoke of staying silent. On the government side, Lula recorded a statement in which he called himself “very good at knockout” contests and then said he carries on his back the “promiscuity” that took hold in the Supreme Court, in an attempt to break away from the STF. The PT leadership blamed campaign strategist Sidônio Palmeira for the campaign and is demanding a change of course; replacing him with João Santana is under discussion. Reuters reported that Lula is considering naming Geraldo Alckmin finance minister in a possible new term, to attract centrist voters. In Washington, Donald Trump called the result a “great victory” for Flávio but predicted a “very tight” race; commenting on how fast the count was, he even mixed up Brazil with India.