Datafolha released the first runoff poll: Flávio Bolsonaro has 49% and Lula 45%. Among valid votes, the press’s calculation gives 52% to 48%. Blank and spoiled ballots add up to 5% and the undecided to 1%. According to coverage, the margin of error is two points and 2,520 voters were interviewed on the 6th and 7th; we did not check the registration with the TSE. The Lula government is approved by 48% and disapproved by 49%. Flávio celebrated the points he gained, and Lula said the picture remains undefined. The Ibovespa rose 0.94%, with Petrobras. Today campaign broadcast time returns and Lula takes a walk in the Federal District.
It is the first snapshot of the final duel, and the market and the candidates adjust their message and platform to it. The election is on October 25.
Polls measure a moment and carry a margin of error. Follow the series from several pollsters, not a single number.
The four-point lead in total votes, twice the margin of error, indicates that Flávio starts out ahead.
With a margin of two points for each candidate and the campaign only beginning, the picture is still open and could turn around.
What matters most is not just the 49% to 45% but the trend. The coming days will show whether campaign broadcast time and Lula’s fiscal campaign move the gap. Compare with the next polls before drawing conclusions.
G1 · Valor · Folha (Oct. 8–9) · margin of error and sample as reported by the press; TSE registration not checked
Datafolha opens the runoff with Flávio at 49% and Lula at 45%; stocks rise 0.94% and campaign broadcast time returns today
Among valid votes, the split is 52% to 48% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The gap in total votes is twice the margin of error, and the Lula government has 48% approval and 49% disapproval.
Datafolha released the first runoff poll between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) on Thursday, October 8. Flávio has 49% of voting intentions and Lula 45%, according to G1 and Valor. Among valid votes, which leave out blank, spoiled and undecided ballots, the press’s calculation gives 52% to 48%. Blank and spoiled ballots add up to 5%, and the undecided, 1%. The margin of error is two percentage points, and 2,520 voters were interviewed on the 6th and 7th, according to coverage of the poll; we did not check the survey’s registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Because the four-point gap in total votes is still close to the combined reach of the margins, part of the press speaks of a situation near a technical tie. The same institute measured the government’s approval rating: 48% approve and 49% disapprove of the Lula administration, G1 reports. Both sides read the number in their own favor. Flávio celebrated the points he gained, and Lula replied that the picture remains undefined and that his duty is to work to win more votes, according to G1 and Valor. Flávio’s campaign sees the PT candidate as stagnant, and Lula’s allies are betting on a late turnaround, Folha reports.
The market had been waiting for the poll. The Ibovespa closed up 0.94% at 206,220 points, lifted by Petrobras, and Valor attributed part of the advance to greater electoral optimism; the commercial dollar stayed near R$ 5.02. On Friday the 9th, free campaign broadcast time returns to radio and TV, and Lula resumes campaign events with a walk in the Federal District, according to G1. Lula’s campaign is expected to start defending balanced public finances and pointing out fiscal holes in Flávio’s proposal, Folha reports. On the other side, Flávio said retirement pensions will be left out of any spending cuts, according to G1, and minister Fernando Haddad said his opponent would freeze the minimum wage, according to Valor; Lula defended keeping the current policy of raising it. In the political arena, the Senate held the third of five discussion sessions on the PEC ending the 6x1 schedule, and Lula demanded that the PL caucus vote in favor. The election will be decided on October 25. Datafolha also polled voters in the Federal District, where Celina Leão has 55% and Leandro Grass 37% in the runoff for governor, according to Valor. On the economy, Flávio’s team ruled out a super-ministry like Paulo Guedes’s and guaranteed a separate Ministry of Development, Valor reports, adding that Décio Oddone, Adriano Pires and Eduardo Pazuello are being floated for Petrobras in a possible government; none of this was confirmed by the campaign. Investors are following these signals, because fiscal policy and the leadership of state-owned companies weigh on the price of Brazilian assets.