Trump says the U.S. will not strike Iran before the midterms. Oil jumps nearly 4% anyway
President Trump said on Thursday that the U.S. will not attack Iran before the November midterm elections, according to The Globe and Mail, Radio-Canada and Le Devoir. The Globe separately reported explosions in the Saudi capital that sent crude higher and U.S. stock futures down. Brent rose nearly 4%. West Texas Intermediate settled near US$91.5, up about 3.6%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.47% to 7,765.36. The Toronto market rose 0.30% on energy strength.
A pause on one side does not close the Strait of Hormuz or end attacks on Gulf infrastructure. Oil traders are pricing the risk of supply loss, not the announcement.
Expect pump prices to follow crude up over the next days. Producers in Alberta and Newfoundland benefit; drivers and airlines pay.
A stated pause lowers the odds of direct escalation before the vote and gives diplomacy room.
Announcing a pause that ties military policy to an election calendar tells Tehran when to expect pressure to resume.
Watch Brent against US$100 and the Saudi explosions. If they are confirmed as attacks and not accidents, the pause does not matter.
DailyDrop Canada edition No. 4 · Morning · THU., OCT. 8, 2026