Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%. Traders trimmed bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike
Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, according to Reuters, CBC, BNN Bloomberg, The Globe and Mail, Radio-Canada, La Presse and the Financial Post. Reuters called the drop a surprise and said the jobless rate inched up. Quebec lost 49,000 jobs, TVA Nouvelles and Le Journal de Montréal reported, and the Telegraph-Journal said unemployment in New Brunswick rose again. Bloomberg said the Canadian dollar weakened as the soft data dimmed rate-hike bets, and FinancialJuice, citing swap data, said the odds of an October hike fell to 27% from 40%. The TSX closed up 1.48% at 35,664.62 and USD/CAD finished at 1.4254, per DailyDrop's quote feed. We did not see the detail by industry, age or wages.
The labour market is the Bank of Canada's main worry besides inflation. Two weak readings in a row, which the Globe and Mail and La Presse headlines imply, shift the question from how high rates may go to whether they should rise at all. A single month is noisy, though, and the survey is a sample.
If you renew a mortgage or carry a variable-rate loan, weaker jobs data lowers the odds of higher rates in the near term but does not guarantee relief. If you work in Quebec, the provincial figure is the one to watch. Job seekers should expect slower hiring.
One month of losses, led by a single province, is a poor basis for panic, and the TSX's jump shows investors see it as a reason for easier policy rather than a collapse.
Losses on this scale with unemployment at 6.5% show the economy is stalling, and an aging population and low immigration, which the Bank of Canada says are reshaping the economy, limit how fast it can recover.
Watch two numbers: the October reading and the Bank of Canada's next statement. Until then, treat the 27% hike probability as one data vendor's estimate, and remember that Quebec's 49,000 is most of the national story.
DailyDrop Canada edition No. 6 · Morning · SAT., OCT. 10, 2026