Trump says the U.S. will not attack Iran before the midterms. Brent still closes above $104 and gilt yields stay near multi-decade highs
President Trump said on 8 October that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterm elections. Markets were not soothed. Brent settled at $104.28, up 4.07%, and WTI at $91.49, up 3.64%, as tankers came under attack in and around the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis fired on Saudi airports. The New York Times reported that the Pentagon has drawn up a three-day strike plan, which no second outlet has confirmed. In London the FTSE 100 closed 0.16% lower at 10,441.60. One market report put the 10-year gilt yield near 5.48% and said money markets priced about 23 basis points of Bank of England rises by November. On Wall Street the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, the Nasdaq 1.25% and the Dow rose 0.10%. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.231%.
Oil is the channel through which a war in the Gulf reaches British prices. Higher energy costs revive inflation, which pushes up the yields the government pays on its debt and the rates banks charge on mortgages. Gilts are carrying a bigger share of that stress than most other bond markets.
If you are remortgaging or fixing a deal, lenders price off swap rates that follow gilt yields, so quotes can move within days. Energy bills and petrol are the next places where oil shows up.
The pledge lowers the chance of a sudden escalation before November and gives diplomacy time.
A promise tied to an election date is not a strategy, and the reported strike planning shows that the risk has only been postponed.
Markets are pricing the war rather than the pledge. Watch three things: whether Brent holds above $100, whether the 30-year gilt yield stays above 6%, and what the Bank of England says about November. The Budget on 28 October will land in this setting.
DailyDrop U.K. edition No. 5 · Morning · FRI., OCT. 9, 2026