Fiscal watchdog says the budget puts public finances on a worse trajectory
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, in a flash release titled "Fast and Loose", said the budget puts the public finances on a worse trajectory (RTÉ, Irish Times, TheJournal, Irish Examiner). It said the spending speed limit set at 5% in 2021 was exceeded, with growth of almost 9% in 2026. It said about six of every seven euros of corporation tax would be spent and that three firms pay nearly half of the total. Excluding excess corporation tax it projected deficits rising from €12 billion in 2026 to €20 billion in 2030. Martin disagreed, pointing to 6% growth and a €1.6 billion contingency; Harris called the reliance on corporation tax a real concern.
If a few multinationals change where they book profits, a large share of State revenue could vanish. A deficit that is hidden by windfall tax would then appear all at once.
Slower public finances later could mean tighter budgets, higher taxes or cuts in services, so today's relief carries a risk.
The Government says the plan is affordable, includes a contingency, and invests in housing and infrastructure.
The watchdog argues the Government has broken its own rules and is spending a windfall as if it were permanent.
Harris agreeing that corporation tax reliance is a concern is the key sentence. The question is what the Government will do about it, and the budget did not answer.
DailyDrop Ireland edition No. 3 · Morning · WED., OCT. 7, 2026