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Security · WorldPress ✓ 6 outlets · one original source: anonymous sources to CNN

CNN: US weighing use of the “mother of all bombs” against Iran; Netanyahu said a day earlier he is not seeking to strike before the election

The report is based on anonymous sources, and Reuters describes it as a consideration for possible future strikes. On October 14 Netanyahu said he is not seeking to strike Iran again before the election, and no source available to us reports a decision or a date.

On the morning of October 15 CNN reported, citing unnamed sources, that the US is considering using against Iran the bomb known as the “mother of all bombs.” Reuters wrote that this concerns possible future strikes, and Ynet phrases it as use “for the first time” against Iran. The report also appeared in Haaretz, Kan 11, Maariv and FinancialJuice. Maariv describes a bomb weighing 9.8 tons that “destroys nine streets,” and writes that senior US military officials doubt its effectiveness. According to Maariv, behind the plan is a move that would let Trump declare victory and end the war. This is a description by a single outlet, with no further details.

No source available to us reports a decision. On October 14 Netanyahu said, according to Reuters, that he is not seeking to strike Iran again before the election in Israel. The same day Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said at a situation assessment in the IDF Central Command that the potential for escalation had grown because of the large number of alerts in all arenas (Haaretz, Ynet). As we wrote in the previous edition, a senior White House official told Kan 11 that reports of a US strike before the midterm elections are untrue.

Maariv and mako published sharper reports: that the Pentagon has passed to US Central Command the final plan for a three-day operation in Iran, with mako noting that this is based on a report in the Emirates. These are reports by a single outlet at a time, with no official confirmation, and so they are in the “Unverified” block. Yair Lapid said, according to Maariv, that it is very possible Netanyahu will strike Iran before the election. This is a political assessment and not news.

At the same time, attacks on Gulf shipping continue. The Guardian wrote on October 14 that a container ship sank near the Strait of Hormuz and that another ship was reported sinking, in the sharpest rise in attacks since the start of the war, and that this hints at an Iranian attempt to close the route before the US election. Bloomberg reported the next day the sinking of a container ship in the strait. Reuters wrote on October 15 that Iran’s precise strikes on infrastructure in the Gulf had blunted American war plans.

Background: the election in Israel is on October 27, and in the US on November 3. Those who see a real chance of a military move point to the reports of preparations, to the public threats and to the surge in attacks on shipping. A skeptic points out that the report relies on anonymous sources, that Reuters speaks of possible future strikes, and that Netanyahu and a senior White House official deny an intention to act before the election.

DailyDrop notes: what several outlets confirmed is CNN’s report and the remarks of Netanyahu and the Chief of Staff. What was not confirmed: that a decision was made to use the bomb, where and when, and whether it can reach targets in Iran. The assessment of effectiveness and the description of the bomb as “devastation of nine streets” we took from Maariv alone.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take
By the numbers
11Days to the Knesset election, October 27
18Days to the US midterm elections, November 3
9.8Tons: the bomb’s weight according to Maariv
Politics · SecurityPress ✓ 5 outlets · the claims are Bar’s, in the statement of claim

Ronen Bar files defamation suit against Netanyahu: “lied to cover for himself”; Netanyahu: “did not want to cooperate”

On October 14 Ronen Bar, the former head of the Shin Bet, filed a defamation suit against Netanyahu, less than two weeks before the election. According to the reports, he accuses Netanyahu of lying to protect himself regarding the warnings before October 7, and holds that accusing him of criminal failures in the disaster is defamation (Al Jazeera, FMT, Maariv, Ynet, Haaretz English).

According to the timeline in Ynet, in the statement of claim Bar describes warnings he says he gave, from November 2022 until 6:15 a.m. on October 7, 2023: to Netanyahu, in the cabinet and in personal approaches. Maariv adds that he writes that Netanyahu forbade him to meet with the defense minister and deliberately blocked a preemptive strike. These are claims in a statement of claim, not findings.

Netanyahu was interviewed that evening on Kan 11 and said, as quoted in Maariv: “He did not want to cooperate, he could have reached me at any moment.” Opposition leaders demanded, according to Haaretz English, a state commission of inquiry and Netanyahu’s resignation. A commentary in Israel Hayom said that the statement of claim reveals Bar’s full version in advance, and that the move may cost him.

DailyDrop notes: this is a pleading and a response in an interview, not a ruling by a court. We did not see Netanyahu’s full response beyond the quotation.

Open
Word of the day
Statement of claimLaw

The document in which a plaintiff presents their claims to the court. The claims in it are the plaintiff’s version, and until determined otherwise they are not proven facts.


Security · GazaPress ✓ 5 outlets · original source: The Guardian, an anonymous source

The Guardian: Israel is blocking construction of a base for the international force in Gaza; assessment that the reason is the election

On the evening of October 14 The Guardian reported that Israel is preventing progress on an American project to build a base for 150 soldiers of the international force in the Gaza Strip. A source familiar with the details told the paper that already in August the Board of Peace had issued a contract to an American construction company, but the contractors did not receive approvals: “They are not opening the border” (Ynet, Globes, Israel Hayom, Haaretz). Haaretz writes that the refusal prevents the Board of Peace from carrying out the other reconstruction plans, and Israel Hayom adds that the project has been delayed for more than two months.

Ynet quotes an assessment that the reason for the delay is the election in Israel. This is an assessment and not an official explanation, and an official Israeli response was not included in the reports available to us. All the reports rely on The Guardian, so the number of soldiers and the date of the contract cannot be verified by us separately.

Meanwhile, sources in Gaza reported, according to Asharq Al-Awsat and Detik, four dead in Israeli strikes on October 14. The IDF said on its Telegram channel on October 15 that it dismantled a terror tunnel that crossed the area of the “Yellow Line.”

DailyDrop notes: the delay was reported by several outlets, but at the base of all of them is a single anonymous source. What is missing is an official Israeli response and details of who requested approval and what response was given.

Open
Economy · MarketsPress ✓ 7 outlets · index figures as reported

US inflation of 3.7% knocks down tech stocks; sharp declines in Seoul and Tokyo

The US consumer price index rose in September by 3.7% year on year, above the forecast of 3.6% (FT, FinancialJuice). The FT links the rise to the war in Iran and to fuel prices. Bloomberg reported that US bonds fell, and investors raised their bets on a Fed rate hike this month and next year.

Wall Street closed on October 14 lower. The Dow Jones fell 0.09% at the close (Investing.com), and the Nasdaq plunged more than 2% during trading (Globes, Bizportal); Bloomberg wrote that the S&P 500 ended its longest calm streak since 2020. We did not confirm the closing percentages of the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 in two sources, and so they have no place in the page’s ear.

On October 15 the sell-off reached Asia. Reuters, the FT and Bloomberg reported on the fall of artificial-intelligence stocks. According to Chosun, the KOSPI opened down 5.59%, and at 10:25 in Seoul the decline stood at 7.75%; according to Infobae, the Nikkei fell more than 4% at the open. Ynet Economy reported a decline of about 8% in Seoul and about 5% in Tokyo.

Reuters wrote that the dollar retreated from an 18-month high after senior Fed officials softened bets on a rate hike. The same day, during US trading, Reuters wrote that chip stocks were expected to wipe out about $2 trillion in value; the day’s close will be published after this edition. DailyDrop notes: we did not verify the September inflation figure in Israel, about which Globes wrote economists’ estimates.

Open
By the numbers
3.7%Annual US inflation, September; forecast 3.6%
-0.09%Dow Jones at the Oct. 14 close, according to Investing.com
-7.75%KOSPI at 10:25 in Seoul, Oct. 15, according to Chosun

Politics · ElectionsPress ✓ 4 outlets · a single Channel 13 News poll, not a poll average

11 days to the election: in Channel 13 News poll the Netanyahu bloc falls to 51 seats and Yashar! leads with 20; a Likud minister said he would propose a rotation with Eisenkot

In a Channel 13 News poll of October 14 the Netanyahu bloc falls to 51 seats; Maariv writes that it loses four. Likud weakens to 18, a drop of two seats compared with a week earlier according to Haaretz, and Eisenkot’s Yashar! stays at 20 seats and leads (Maariv, Haaretz). Hendel’s Reservists party passes the electoral threshold, and Maariv and Reshet 13 reported that Zelicha also passes it; in Haaretz it is Winter that appears instead. According to Haaretz, the boycott by some parties in the Eisenkot bloc of the Arab parties leaves the bloc with 50 seats, as in the previous poll. This is a single poll, not a picture of all the polls.

Israel Hayom and Maariv reported that a Likud minister said that in a certain scenario he would propose a joint government with Eisenkot, with Netanyahu first. This is contrary to Likud’s position, according to Maariv. Eisenkot himself said, according to the Davar website, that if the bloc does not reach 60 Knesset members he will swear in a minority government; this is a statement from a single outlet.

On the campaign trail: Ynet and Israel Hayom reported that at a conference of the Democrats party in Nahariya stones were thrown at participants, and Otzma Yehudit activists tried to disrupt the event; No. 8 on the Otzma Yehudit list was removed from the venue. Otzma Yehudit MK Kroizer was summoned for questioning by the police (details in Briefs). And more ahead of the election: Israel revoked an entry visa for an Italian journalist who intended to cover the elections, claiming that “circumstances changed” (Haaretz, Haaretz English).

DailyDrop notes: these are the figures of a single poll and statements by candidates. They do not predict results, and differences between polls may be large.

Open
In brief
  • Colombia opened an embassy in Jerusalem and announced its withdrawal from the Hague Group; Saudi Arabia condemned the openingYnet, Israel Hayom, Revista Semana, Republika
  • The IEA: the release of oil stocks from the March move will exceed 400 million barrels, including 100 million that remainReuters, Bloomberg, FinancialJuice
  • The Houthis attacked the presidential palace compound in Aden; the prime minister was not hurt, and the BBC reported two deadReuters, BBC, FinancialJuice
  • MK Kroizer summoned for questioning on suspicion of attacking police officers; he calls it an orchestrated political investigationYnet, Haaretz, Maariv, Israel Hayom
  • A 10-year-old boy was killed in Beitar Illit by a burning object that flew from a recycling bin that exploded; suspicion that children set the bin on fireYnet, Haaretz, Maariv
  • Zelensky: Ukraine will resume strikes on refineries in Russia; Musk called on Zelensky to “go” following a dispute over StarlinkFT, Reuters, AFP, The Straits Times
  • EuroLeague: Hapoel Tel Aviv beat Beşiktaş 100:82; in the Champions League PSG beat Manchester City 4:2 and Real Madrid won 4:3 in RomeHaaretz, Israel Hayom, Sport5, Ynet
  • From today and through the weekend: cooling and rain in the north and centerYnet, mako, Israel Hayom
Seven minutes every morning, one front page

Unverified — what we could not confirm

“The Pentagon passed the final plan for a three-day strike in Iran.” Maariv and mako publish this, and mako cites a report in the Emirates. There is no official confirmation. CNN wrote only that use of the bomb in possible future strikes is being considered, and Netanyahu said he is not seeking to strike before the election.
“Video of a Saudi passenger plane exploding after a Houthi attack.” AFP Fact Check found that the video was created with artificial intelligence and was wrongly attributed to Houthi attacks on airports in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-led coalition said, according to Reuters, that the Houthis tried to attack dozens of airports, oil facilities and ports, and the video is not documentation of such an event.
“Israel is delaying the base in Gaza to interfere with Trump’s plan until after the election.” This is an assessment quoted in Ynet, not an official explanation. Israel did not publish a reason in the reports available to us.
Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDECNN: US weighing use of the “mother of all bombs” against Iran; Netanyahu said a day earlier he is not seeking to strike before the electionSecurity · WorldRonen Bar files defamation suit against Netanyahu: “lied to cover for himself”; Netanyahu: “did not want to cooperate”Politics · SecurityThe Guardian: Israel is blocking construction of a base for the international force in Gaza; assessment that the reason is the electionSecurity · GazaUS inflation of 3.7% knocks down tech stocks; sharp declines in Seoul and TokyoEconomy · Markets11 days to the election: in Channel 13 News poll the Netanyahu bloc falls to 51 seats and Yashar! leads with 20; a Likud minister said he would propose a rotation with EisenkotPolitics · Elections