Trump said on Thursday that the US is holding ‘productive talks’ with Iran and that he will not attack the country before the November midterm elections (Reuters, NU.nl, Der Spiegel, Radio-Canada, Bloomberg). Bloomberg Television also reported that he is no longer seeking a deal; that appears nowhere else. According to the New York Times, the Pentagon has drawn up options for three days of strikes, but Trump repeatedly rejected a restart of the war over recent months. In the Gulf, the Houthis claimed a new attack on Riyadh airport; the coalition said it had intercepted two missiles. Lufthansa and Indian carriers suspended flights (Reuters). American crude (WTI) rose about 3.6 percent to roughly $91.50, and Brent rose above
The Gulf supplies a large share of the world’s oil and gas. Any attack on airports or oil installations hits prices, flight routes and rate expectations. An American pause until November removes the biggest threat of attack, but not the fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.
Fuel and energy contracts follow the oil price with a lag of a few weeks. If you fly often to the Middle East, you may face cancelled or rerouted flights. Investors can see that oil and interest rates together are hitting the market.
The pause gives diplomacy room. A new attack before the elections would push oil and inflation up further, and nobody wants that.
A pause tied to an election date is an invitation to Tehran to wait it out. The Houthis and Iran do not keep to American calendars.
Two things can be true: there is talk, and there is shooting. Do not watch Trump’s words; watch the flights to Riyadh and the Brent price around
Reuters · NU.nl · Der Spiegel · Radio-Canada · Bloomberg · New York Times · AP · Hindustan Times · Al Jazeera · Le Figaro · Australian newspapers (Oct. 8–9) · closing prices Oct. 8
Trump rules out an attack on Iran until after the elections. The Houthis fire on Riyadh, and oil rises again
Washington says it is holding ‘productive talks’ with Tehran and will not attack before the American elections in November. The same day the Houthis attacked Riyadh airport and the oil price climbed again. Stocks slipped along.
President Trump said on Thursday that the United States is holding ‘productive talks’ with Iran and that he will not attack the country before the November midterm elections. Reuters, NU.nl, Der Spiegel, Radio-Canada and Bloomberg reported the remark; NU.nl called it a pause in attacks. The war began in February with American and Israeli strikes on Iran. According to Livemint, it is costing Trump support among voters and putting pressure on Republicans who want to hold on to their narrow majority in Congress. Bloomberg Television also reported that Trump said he was no longer seeking a deal. That sentence has so far appeared only there, and what exactly he meant is unclear. The New York Times wrote that the Pentagon has drawn up options for three days of strikes, while over recent months the president has repeatedly rejected a restart of the war. According to the Indian newspaper Economic Times, Iran says it is keeping its uranium. Russia stands behind Tehran: after meeting his Iranian counterpart Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan, Putin said he wanted to do everything to end the war (Al Jazeera, Le Figaro).
The pause brought no calm to the Gulf. The Houthis in Yemen claimed a new attack on Riyadh airport on Thursday and threatened to hit Saudi Arabia’s oil installations. The Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted two ballistic missiles heading for Riyadh and Khamis Mushait (Hindustan Times); Reuters and AP reported smoke near the airport. Lufthansa and Indian carriers suspended their flights to Riyadh (Reuters). Turkey, according to its foreign minister, is considering supporting Saudi defences but rules out an offensive role. Prices reacted at once. A barrel of Brent climbed back above $104, according to Australian newspapers; American crude WTI rose about 3.6 percent, to around $91.50. The S&P 500 lost 0.47 percent on oil worries and inflation fears. The American ten-year yield nonetheless fell 4.6 basis points to 5.231 percent, after an auction of thirty-year government bonds drew strong demand. Fed board member Waller said, according to Reuters, that more rate hikes are needed, although there is room on the pace. The effects reach beyond the Gulf. Ryanair chief O’Leary said, according to Reuters, that the sharply higher jet fuel price could last until 2028, and Asian countries are building up oil reserves and speeding up their switch to renewable energy (Reuters). For the Netherlands this means more expensive fuel and an uncertain energy market, even though the AEX still rose 0.31 percent on Thursday, to 1,121.20 points. The euro held around $1.12. How much the pause is worth therefore depends less on Washington than on what Tehran and the Houthis do in the coming days.