Economists expect the central bank to raise rates again on October 22; some see two more hikes this year
After September inflation of 7.2%, economists expect another BSP hike on October 22: BMI (Fitch Solutions) 25 bps to 5.25%; BPI 25 bps in October and again in December to 5.50%, with a 50 bps move possible; UOB three consecutive 25 bps hikes through early 2027 (BusinessWorld, Daily Tribune). The BSP has hiked three times since March, most recently on August 27 (Manila Times, Tribune). Second-quarter growth was 2.3%, a post-pandemic low. These are projections.
Higher rates fight inflation but slow an economy already growing at 2.3 percent, a tradeoff that decides loan costs and jobs.
If you carry a variable-rate loan or credit card balance, expect payments to rise. Savers may see slightly better deposit rates.
Aggressive hikes would show resolve and could support the peso, which is near record lows.
Hiking into weak growth risks deepening the slowdown, and most of the inflation comes from imported oil that rates cannot reduce.
The policy rate cannot reopen Hormuz. Judge the October 22 decision by what the central bank says on core inflation and the peso, not by the size of the move alone.
DailyDrop Philippines edition No. 3 · Morning · WED., OCT. 7, 2026