Hormuz stays shut until Iran’s seven conditions are met, and OPEC+ leaves November output unchanged
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on 4 October that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Iran’s seven conditions, based on the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, are met (Khaleej Times, Gulf News, Oman Observer). Reports say the conditions include lifting the US naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets; not all seven were disclosed. He said the US had sent proposals through intermediaries. The strait has been effectively closed since the US–Iran fighting began on 28 February. Also on 4 October the seven core OPEC+ members agreed to keep November required output at the September 2026 level, a joint 31 million barrels a day, with the next meeting on 1 November (The National).
Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through the strait. As long as it is shut and OPEC+ holds quotas, crude stays near $90, which feeds directly into Pakistan’s import bill and fuel prices.
Petrol, diesel and electricity tariffs are linked to oil and the rupee. A longer closure means fuel stays expensive and inflation, now above 10%, takes longer to fall.
Tehran argues the US must honour the June memorandum first, including the blockade and frozen assets, before shipping resumes.
Washington and Gulf producers say Iran is using the strait as leverage and that the memorandum already provides for passage.
Pakistan mediated the memorandum, so a collapse of it is also a diplomatic problem for Islamabad. Watch for any new round of shuttle diplomacy, and for whether OPEC+ revisits quotas on 1 November.
DailyDrop Pakistan edition No. 1 · Morning · MON., OCT. 5, 2026