IMF projects Pakistan’s growth at 3.5 per cent for 2026-27, below the government’s 4 per cent target
Business Recorder reported that the IMF projects Pakistan’s growth at 3.5 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27, below the government’s 4 per cent target and just above a global figure of 3.4 per cent, with India at 7 per cent; the paper’s headline gives inflation as 9.9 per cent, but the period was unclear in the text DailyDrop saw. The Pakistan numbers have no second source. Separately, Bloomberg Television and The Nation reported Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb saying Pakistan expects growth above 4 per cent, and Business Recorder reported him asking the G-24 in Bangkok for stronger World Bank and IMF support for developing countries. Reuters reported the Fund flagging risks from an AI-linked market correction, war and debt.
A gap of half a percentage point between the Fund and the government matters for the budget and for the next review of the loan programme.
Slower growth and high inflation mean tight household budgets. Textile exporters, a large source of jobs, are asking for temporary tax-refund support to stem falling exports (Business Recorder).
Treat the 3.5 per cent as the Fund’s view, not a prediction anyone has to share. Watch whether the finance ministry publicly disputes it this week and what the IMF says about inflation, since a 9.9 per cent figure, if confirmed, would be the number that households feel.
DailyDrop Pakistan edition No. 10 · Morning · WED., OCT. 14, 2026