47,111.26TAIEX · Oct. 16 close · up 0.30%

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32.428U.S. dollar to New Taiwan dollar · Oct. 16 close
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Weather · TyphoonPress ✓ 5 outlets · actual track and intensity undetermined

Jangmi becomes a moderate typhoon this morning; Central Weather Administration says next Thursday is the turning point between veering north and striking Taiwan

Multiple outlets report in step that Jangmi is intensifying rapidly; experts estimate it will become a severe typhoon tomorrow; the track still allows both a northward turn and a strike on Taiwan, with the heaviest impact next Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Jangmi (薔琵) was reported to have been upgraded to a moderate typhoon in the early hours of today (the 18th), and at least five domestic reports described its development in the same terms, “rapid intensification” and “expanding circulation.” According to experts quoted in the media, Jangmi could be upgraded again to a severe typhoon tomorrow and could later become a large severe typhoon; its structure is described as quite complete, and the threat it poses to Taiwan is higher than in previous days. All figures for now follow what the reports quote, and will still be adjusted before the Central Weather Administration issues a formal warning.

The track is where the reports diverge most. The Central Weather Administration's position is that next Thursday is the key turning point: the typhoon could either turn north or move closer to Taiwan. Another report quoted an expert's estimate that there are currently two tracks that would strike Taiwan, with a northward turn still listed as an option, and that the heaviest impact on Taiwan would come next Friday and Saturday. In other words, the sources are close on intensity but have not yet converged on the track.

The reports also differ in tone. Some headlines stress “large severe typhoon” and “rising odds of striking Taiwan”; others put the emphasis on “could also turn north,” so the same forecast is split into different readings. The safer reading is to go back to the Weather Administration's original explanation: the intensity will keep rising, the track will be clearer only around next Thursday, and in the meantime the tracks given by different forecast models still differ.

Several reports also note that the weather during next week's long holiday may turn bad, which would affect plans for travel, trips home and outdoor activities. No agency has yet announced a sea or land warning, and no county or city has announced a suspension of work or classes; those decisions will be announced by the Weather Administration and the county and city governments according to procedure only after the typhoon's distance and storm radius are clearer.

The uncertainty of typhoon forecasts grows as the lead time lengthens; with five to seven days still to go before it nears Taiwan, the track error can be large enough to change the area affected. The most practical thing for readers, therefore, is to treat today through next Thursday as a preparation period: confirm how flexible your travel and transport plans are, check home drainage and typhoon supplies, and look at the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast at a fixed time every day, rather than deciding on the basis of a single expert's track map.

For ordinary households, this means there is no need to panic today, but also no reason to treat holiday plans as settled. Those who have already booked flights, train tickets or guesthouses can first check the cancellation and rescheduling rules; those who have not can choose refundable or changeable options first. Residential management committees and schools can also take advantage of the typhoon still being at sea to check drains and trees ahead of time and reduce damage from strong winds and heavy rain.

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By the numbers
Moderate typhoonIntensity category it was upgraded to this morning
Next ThursdayTrack turning point cited by the Weather Administration
Fri., Sat.Time of heaviest impact, per reports
Society · Health insurancePress ✓ 5 outlets · actual funding source and effective date unclear

Waiver of health insurance premiums for eligible older people passes third reading; civic groups criticize lack of fiscal discipline

The Legislative Yuan passed on third reading this week an amendment exempting eligible older people from paying health insurance premiums, and at least five reports covered the news at the same time. Civic groups afterward said the amendment lacks fiscal discipline and called for a fresh review of the eligibility criteria; a lawyer also said publicly that young people would in effect be footing the bill for those with assets and pensions. The dispute is over who pays for the subsidy. The Executive Yuan side's position is that the health insurance premiums of people aged 65 and over will be subsidized by the central government, which could add to the burden on younger generations; Hsu Yu-chen (許宇甄), secretary-general of the Kuomintang caucus in the Legislative Yuan, rebutted that the caucus is asking the central government to budget funds to subsidize the premiums older people used to pay themselves, not to levy more on young people, and that children even save a health insurance premium they would have had to pay for their parents. Both sides make “young people” the core of their argument, but neither has published the same set of calculations. What the public reports have not yet made clear includes the specific eligibility threshold, the funding needed each year, how much the central budget and the health insurance fund would each bear, and when the measure takes effect. These figures determine whether the amendment is a one-off policy benefit or a long-term fiscal pressure; until officials publish them, any side's figures can only be treated as its own estimate.

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Finance · Stock marketPress ✓ 2 outlets · Taiwan stocks' direction next week unclear

AI and tech stocks under pressure; Nasdaq plunges more than 2%, Taiwan index futures night session drops 1,144 points

Two outlets including Yahoo Finance reported that U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the Nasdaq index down more than 2%, AI and tech stocks continuing to come under pressure, and all the major memory chip makers falling. The Taiwan index futures night session weakened in step, dropping 1,144 points.

The TAIEX closed on Friday (the 16th) at 47,111.26, up 0.30% from the previous trading day, a price set before the night session fell. That is to say, when Taiwan stocks open on Monday next week, they will face the declines that U.S. stocks and the night session have already priced in since the close of Friday's day session.

Another CNA report said Nvidia and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh both took action to reassure investors, and European stocks closed higher that day as a result; data released by the U.S. government the same day also showed the fiscal 2026 budget deficit climbing to nearly US$2 trillion, the highest since 2021. These pieces of news pull against one another, making the market's judgment about the heat of AI investment and the direction of interest rates more divided.

Taken as a whole, this week's market information shows a tug of war: on one side, declines in U.S. tech and memory stocks; on the other, European stocks closing higher on statements from companies and the central bank, and with the U.S. fiscal deficit at a record high, investors have to reassess both interest rates and AI profits. Taiwan stocks' small gain on Friday came before this news, and how Monday's open reacts depends on whether the night session's decline continues and on the direction of foreign investors' buying and selling.

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Politics · ElectionPress ✓ 1 outlet (Liberty Times) · referendum result and polling unclear

Kuomintang rally in Yuanlin spotlights Nov. 28 nuclear referendum; an “ocean current” appears in Taipei mayoral race

On Saturday (the 17th) afternoon the Kuomintang held a joint referendum rally for the four counties and cities of Taichung, Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin in Yuanlin City, Changhua County, the camp's first rally drawing ten thousand people. Its main theme was repealing the “nuclear-free homeland” and bringing nuclear power back into use, and it urged voters to cast a ballot in favor of nuclear power in the referendum on Nov. 28. The details below all come from multiple Liberty Times reports; no second outlet has independently verified them.

The lineup of speakers was well ordered: outgoing Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) criticized the Democratic Progressive Party, saying that after it shut down nuclear power the Taichung thermal power plant's coal burning rose by half; Taichung mayoral candidate Chiang Chi-chen (江啟臣) said the aim was to free central Taiwan from the days of “generating power with their lungs”; Party Chairperson Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) and Lu Shiow-yen both appealed with “For AI, nuclear power must double.” Changhua County Magistrate Wang Hui-mei (王惠美), who had said she had official business, also showed up before the event began and appeared together with county magistrate candidate Wei Ping-cheng (魏平政) for about ten minutes.

Another political thread runs through Taipei. Democratic Progressive Party Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) is still behind in the polls, but the Liberty Times, citing analysis from blue-camp figures, said an “ocean current” that has appeared over the past month has pulled a group of centrist voters toward him, though light-blue, white-camp and centrist voters in other counties and cities have not yet been affected. Mayor Chiang Wan-an was absent from an event against child abuse, where Puma Shen put forward proposals for improvement and criticized the city's child protection system as riddled with holes; each side has its own account.

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World · EuropePress ✓ 1 outlet (Liberty Times relaying Reuters) · casualty and damage figures unclear

Protests over high prices turn into violent clashes in France as demonstrations break out simultaneously in Italy, Belgium and other countries

Nationwide demonstrations in France on Saturday (the 17th) turned into violent clashes in several large cities. Protesters smashed property, set fires and looted shops, and broke into government buildings and police stations, and police responded with tear gas and water cannon to put them down. By that night more than 400 people had been arrested across France; the protesters' demands were high prices and the gradual collapse of the social welfare system that is supposed to provide basic opportunity and security.

Reuters reported that Italy, Belgium, Portugal and Albania also held demonstrations the same day, protesting rising living costs or education problems, with violent clashes between police and protesters in many places, including scenes of clashes around Milan Cathedral in Italy. In Tirana, the Albanian capital, anti-government protests have erupted in clashes for the fifth straight day; police used rubber bullets for the first time, and Prime Minister Rama said he would listen to the protesters.

The reason these clashes drew attention from Taiwanese media is that prices and welfare are issues with similar backgrounds in many countries. The reports so far do not give casualty and property-damage figures for each country, nor do they say whether the demonstrations were centrally organized, so the more precise way to put it is: protests on the same theme appeared on the streets of several countries on the same day, with the violence at its worst in France. How governments respond afterward remains to be seen.

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In brief
  • Qilai Mountain Hut proposes fee increaseThe National Park Service of the Ministry of the Interior proposes 800 yuan per person per night on weekdays and 1,200 yuan on holidays at Qilai Mountain Hut, with Paiyun Lodge going from 480 to 1,000 yuan (CNA, Liberty Times).
  • China cuts U.S. Treasury holdings againThe South China Morning Post reports that China's August holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to an 18-year low, while it has added to its gold holdings for 23 straight months, reaching 2,400 metric tons in total (Liberty Times).
  • Taiwan's first badminton World Junior goldChen Ping-hsuan and Lee Wei-ting beat a Japanese pair in straight games in Cairo, Egypt, to win Taiwan's first men's doubles gold medal at the World Junior Championships (Liberty Times).
  • Pope Leo XIV discharged from hospitalThe pope recovered well after surgery for lung adenocarcinoma and left the hospital on Saturday afternoon; the faithful lined the street outside to welcome him (CNA).
  • National Games openThe Year 115 (Republic of China calendar) National Games opened in Taoyuan on Saturday evening; Li Hao-yu (李灝宇) lit the flame, and there were performances by entertainers at Athletes' Night (Liberty Times).
  • U.S. budget deficit hits new highThe U.S. fiscal 2026 budget deficit has widened to nearly US$2 trillion, the highest since 2021 (CNA, Liberty Times).
  • Chinese banks roll out loans to pay social insuranceSome banks have launched plans to lend money for paying social insurance, drawing criticism in China's trending online searches (Liberty Times).
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Unverified — what we could not confirm

Jangmi will definitely strike Taiwan directly, and next week's holiday will see work shut down across the board. The Weather Administration has said only that next Thursday is the turning point for the track, and both a northward turn and a strike on Taiwan are possible; no work-suspension announcement has been made.
After people 65 and over are exempted from health insurance premiums, young people's premiums will definitely go up. The Kuomintang caucus says the subsidy would be budgeted by the central government and would not be levied on young people; whether premiums rise awaits an official announcement of the funding source.
France's protests have caused large numbers of deaths. The Liberty Times, relaying Reuters, reported only more than 400 arrests and clashes between police and protesters, and did not mention a death toll.
Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDEJangmi becomes a moderate typhoon this morning; Central Weather Administration says next Thursday is the turning point between veering north and striking TaiwanWeather · TyphoonWaiver of health insurance premiums for eligible older people passes third reading; civic groups criticize lack of fiscal disciplineSociety · Health insuranceAI and tech stocks under pressure; Nasdaq plunges more than 2%, Taiwan index futures night session drops 1,144 pointsFinance · Stock marketKuomintang rally in Yuanlin spotlights Nov. 28 nuclear referendum; an “ocean current” appears in Taipei mayoral racePolitics · ElectionProtests over high prices turn into violent clashes in France as demonstrations break out simultaneously in Italy, Belgium and other countriesWorld · Europe