Typhoon Jangmi was reported to have been upgraded to a moderate typhoon in the early hours of the 18th, and at least five reports covered the news at the same time. Several reports quoted experts as saying Jangmi will be upgraded to a severe typhoon tomorrow and could later become a large severe typhoon, with its circulation continuing to expand and its structure complete. The Central Weather Administration said next Thursday is the key turning point for the track, and both a northward turn and a move toward Taiwan are within the forecast range. Another report, quoting an expert's estimate, said there are currently two tracks that would strike Taiwan and that the heaviest impact would come next Friday and Saturday. The reports also mentioned that the weather during next week's long holiday will turn worse. As of the time of the reports, no sea or land warning had been announced, and no county or city had announced a suspension of work or classes.
With the track still divided five days out, typhoon preparations will differ from place to place: the north and east must first confirm when wind and rain will arrive, while the south and outlying islands will depend on whether the typhoon moves west. Holiday trips, flights, and Taiwan Railway and High Speed Rail reservations likewise will have no answer until the track is settled next Thursday. For people who run guesthouses, fishing businesses and outdoor activities, if the typhoon nears next Friday and Saturday, going out to sea and opening schedules will have to be adjusted in advance, and the revenue risk falls on those days. Farmers will need to assess their harvest timing so that crops are not still in the field before the strong winds and heavy rain.
Today, list backup plans for next Friday through Sunday, for example choosing refundable or changeable bookings and tickets, and make sure home drains and balconies are clear of clutter. From tomorrow, check the Central Weather Administration's forecast and official announcements once a day at a fixed time, and do not decide on the basis of a single track map forwarded on social media. Also get power banks, drinking water and flashlights ready, and agree with family on how to stay in contact and where to take shelter, so that even if a warning is only issued on Wednesday you will not be caught flustered.
People are not arguing much about intensity; the track is the real unknown. Until next Thursday, the best-value preparation is to leave your plans some flexibility.
5 reports on Typhoon Jangmi, Central Weather Administration statement
Jangmi becomes a moderate typhoon this morning; Central Weather Administration says next Thursday is the turning point between veering north and striking Taiwan
Multiple outlets report in step that Jangmi is intensifying rapidly; experts estimate it will become a severe typhoon tomorrow; the track still allows both a northward turn and a strike on Taiwan, with the heaviest impact next Friday and Saturday.
Typhoon Jangmi (薔琵) was reported to have been upgraded to a moderate typhoon in the early hours of today (the 18th), and at least five domestic reports described its development in the same terms, “rapid intensification” and “expanding circulation.” According to experts quoted in the media, Jangmi could be upgraded again to a severe typhoon tomorrow and could later become a large severe typhoon; its structure is described as quite complete, and the threat it poses to Taiwan is higher than in previous days. All figures for now follow what the reports quote, and will still be adjusted before the Central Weather Administration issues a formal warning.
The track is where the reports diverge most. The Central Weather Administration's position is that next Thursday is the key turning point: the typhoon could either turn north or move closer to Taiwan. Another report quoted an expert's estimate that there are currently two tracks that would strike Taiwan, with a northward turn still listed as an option, and that the heaviest impact on Taiwan would come next Friday and Saturday. In other words, the sources are close on intensity but have not yet converged on the track.
The reports also differ in tone. Some headlines stress “large severe typhoon” and “rising odds of striking Taiwan”; others put the emphasis on “could also turn north,” so the same forecast is split into different readings. The safer reading is to go back to the Weather Administration's original explanation: the intensity will keep rising, the track will be clearer only around next Thursday, and in the meantime the tracks given by different forecast models still differ.
Several reports also note that the weather during next week's long holiday may turn bad, which would affect plans for travel, trips home and outdoor activities. No agency has yet announced a sea or land warning, and no county or city has announced a suspension of work or classes; those decisions will be announced by the Weather Administration and the county and city governments according to procedure only after the typhoon's distance and storm radius are clearer.
The uncertainty of typhoon forecasts grows as the lead time lengthens; with five to seven days still to go before it nears Taiwan, the track error can be large enough to change the area affected. The most practical thing for readers, therefore, is to treat today through next Thursday as a preparation period: confirm how flexible your travel and transport plans are, check home drainage and typhoon supplies, and look at the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast at a fixed time every day, rather than deciding on the basis of a single expert's track map.
For ordinary households, this means there is no need to panic today, but also no reason to treat holiday plans as settled. Those who have already booked flights, train tickets or guesthouses can first check the cancellation and rescheduling rules; those who have not can choose refundable or changeable options first. Residential management committees and schools can also take advantage of the typhoon still being at sea to check drains and trees ahead of time and reduce damage from strong winds and heavy rain.