A Gulf disturbance's odds jump to 60% in two days. The northern coast may get a wet weekend
The National Hurricane Center said Monday afternoon that a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf was producing disorganized showers and storms. Its odds of forming a tropical depression rose from 30% within 48 hours and 70% within seven days in the morning outlook to 60% and 80% by afternoon. The system is tagged Invest 92L and could organize in the Bay of Campeche later this week. Forecasts take it east and then north. Southeast Texas is not expected to see major impacts; Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle could see heavy rain and possible flash flooding by the weekend whether or not it develops. The NHC said it is too early to describe specific impacts. The 2026 Atlantic season has produced no hurricanes so far, the quietest start of the satellite era.
Late-season Gulf systems can strengthen quickly over warm water and arrive with little warning. A system already given 80% odds four or five days out is one to plan around.
If you live between New Orleans and the Panhandle, check your supplies and plans midweek. If you have weekend travel through Gulf Coast airports, watch for advisories.
Odds rising from 30% to 60% within a day is the signal. Watch for the NHC to start advisories on a 'potential tropical cyclone,' which lets it issue watches before a storm has formed.
DailyDrop U.S. No. 1 · October 5, 2026