Day 220: Iran says Hormuz stays shut until Washington accepts its seven-day plan. Trump says a decision is coming, 'the easy way or the hard way'
Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. accepts Tehran's seven-day reopening plan, which rests on conditions drawn from the June memorandum of understanding. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait would reopen within seven days if the plan is agreed, that only diplomacy can work, and that Iran is more prepared than before if the U.S. moves toward force. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said U.S. views passed through a mediator are under review. President Trump, who has rejected the plan, said Saturday that a decision on Iran will come 'the easy way or the hard way,' read as either a deal or a return to large-scale strikes. CBS reported senior officials met at Camp David to discuss the war. The U.S. reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 14. The IRGC says it targeted at least seven tankers over five days; those claims are unverified. Brent settled at $100.32 Monday, down 1.89%.
The strait carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil, and its closure is why fuel prices are at records. The two sides disagree on sequence: Tehran wants the blockade lifted first, Washington wants nuclear limits first. Until that is solved, every oil price move is a bet on a decision only Trump has said he will make.
Gasoline and diesel prices, and the Fed's next move, depend on this more than on anything in Washington. A deal would likely lower pump prices within weeks; an escalation would raise them.
Keeping the blockade is leverage. Accepting Iran's sequence would give up the one pressure point that works before any nuclear concession is on paper.
A reopening plan with a seven-day clock is the closest thing to an exit on the table. Insisting on nuclear terms first keeps oil near $100 through the winter.
Iran gave two voices on Monday: Ghalibaf's 'closed until' and Araghchi's 'open within seven days.' That is a negotiating posture, not a split. The number to watch is Brent: it fell nearly 2% Monday on hopes of talks, and a decision by Trump will show up there first.
DailyDrop U.S. No. 1 · October 5, 2026