Gulf oil exports recover even as attacks on ships in Hormuz pick up
Middle East crude exports have climbed back to about pre-war levels: provisional Kpler data cited by Reuters put the seven-day average at 18.5 million barrels a day on Oct. 1, against about 18 million in the year before the war. At the same time, attacks on shipping have increased. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has logged at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since Oct. 2, Al Jazeera reported; a Liberian-flagged tanker was struck on Oct. 4, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard ordered a tanker near Oman to turn back on Monday. Bloomberg and CNBC reported that Iran is stepping up ship attacks as flows rise. Iran's own exports remain shut in by the U.S. blockade of its ports. Oil executives told Reuters the world has nearly burned through its stockpile buffer.
The flow numbers explain why oil eased this week; the attack numbers explain why it has not fallen far. A market with thin stockpiles cannot absorb a sustained closure, so each tanker strike carries a larger price risk than it would have a year ago.
Gasoline prices follow crude with a lag of a few weeks. This week's ease in oil is welcome but fragile.
The figure to watch is the seven-day export average in Kpler's data. If it holds above 18 million barrels a day despite the attacks, Brent drifts lower. If it drops, the attacks are working.
DailyDrop U.S. No. 2 · October 6, 2026