The S&P 500 closes above 7,800 for the first time. The trade deficit jumps to $105.6 billion on record imports
The S&P 500 gained 0.58% on Tuesday to close at 7,818.93, its first record close since mid-August and the first time it has ever finished above 7,800, according to CNN and CNBC. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45% to a record 27,599.79, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 253.38 points, or 0.49%, to 51,521.28. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.27% from 5.31% Monday (Federal Reserve H.15 data; Investing.com shows 5.271%), after climbing last week above 5.34%, the highest since 2002. Oil eased as Middle East exports recovered, with Brent hovering near $100. Before the open, the Commerce Department reported that the August trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, the largest since March 2025, against a $102.0 billion forecast in a Reuters poll. Imports rose 4.3% to a record $420.8 billion, much of it AI-related equipment; exports rose 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Economists said the gap will likely subtract from third-quarter GDP. Google contracted for about 3,590 megawatts from Constellation Energy on the PJM grid under a 20-year arrangement that includes 890 megawatts of nuclear power; Constellation will spend more than $4.3 billion upgrading 11 nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with first new capacity by 2028. Terms were not disclosed. It was Constellation's second 20-year deal with a technology giant in less than a week. Its shares closed up about 12% by Bloomberg's tally, 14% by TIKR's.
Two numbers from one day point in opposite directions. The record says investors believe AI spending and a pause in the yield climb will carry earnings. The trade data shows where that spending goes: a large share of the machines that fill American data centers is built abroad, so the boom widens the deficit and drags on measured growth even as it lifts stock prices. Tariffs have not closed the gap. The Google–Constellation deal is the other side of the same buildout: data centers need power around the clock, and nuclear plants are being upgraded on 20-year contracts to supply it.
If you own an index fund, today's record is mostly the work of a handful of very large technology names; CNBC pointed out that much of the market is still oversold. If you are shopping for a mortgage, a 10-year yield of 5.27% is a small relief from last week, not a reversal. If you live on the PJM grid, from Chicago to New Jersey, tech companies are now bidding against you for power, and that shows up in capacity prices and, later, your bill.
Earnings are carrying the market, not hope. Yields stopped rising, oil stopped spiking, and the companies building AI keep signing long contracts for power and chips. A record above 7,800 is what that looks like.
A record on narrow leadership, with the 10-year above 5% and a $105.6 billion trade gap, is fragile. One hot inflation print or one more spike in oil, and the bond market takes the lead back.
The trade number is the one to keep. A record $420.8 billion of imports in a month of high tariffs means the AI buildout is running on foreign hardware and borrowed money, and that will show up in third-quarter GDP. The record close tells you what investors expect; Wednesday tells you whether the bond market agrees. The Fed's minutes arrive at 2 p.m. and a $39 billion 10-year auction an hour earlier. If the 10-year holds near 5.27% through both, 7,800 can hold too.
DailyDrop U.S. No. 2 · October 6, 2026