Isaias forms in the Gulf. Hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass, landfall Friday night
The National Hurricane Center upgraded a Bay of Campeche disturbance to Tropical Storm Isaias on Wednesday morning after an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found winds near 45 mph. At 10 a.m. CDT the center was near 22.4°N, 93.6°W, moving east-northeast at about 8 mph. The forecast calls for rapid strengthening: a hurricane on Thursday, a peak near 110 mph (Category 2) over the central Gulf Thursday night, then some weakening from wind shear before the center moves inland along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday with winds near 85 mph. A hurricane watch is in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida; tropical storm watches extend west to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana and east to the Aucilla River in Florida; a storm surge watch runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River east to Yankeetown, Florida. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, locally 10, is forecast from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with a tornado risk. Texas is not expected to be affected. It would be the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026, an unusually late first.
The whole northern Gulf Coast, from New Orleans's eastern suburbs to Apalachicola, is inside the cone three days out, and the forecast has the storm strongest just before it arrives. Early October storms in the Gulf tend to move fast once they turn north, which shortens the time for evacuations. The surge watch reaching Yankeetown reflects the shallow Big Bend shelf, where water piles up far from a storm's center.
If you live between Louisiana and the Panhandle, Thursday is the day to act: fuel, water, prescriptions, a plan for Friday. Watches usually become warnings about 36 hours before landfall, so expect them Thursday. If you are flying through New Orleans, Pensacola or Tallahassee Friday, check your airline. Everyone else: gasoline futures tend to twitch when a storm aims at Gulf refineries, so a few cents at the pump is possible next week.
The forecast peak and the forecast landfall strength are 25 mph apart, and that gap is wind shear, the least predictable part of any forecast. Watch two things Thursday: whether the NHC raises the landfall intensity, and whether the watches become warnings as far east as the Big Bend. The surge watch is already the widest of the three, and surge, not wind, is what kills.
DailyDrop U.S. No. 3 · October 7, 2026