Three national polls put Trump's approval at or near record lows as Democrats lead by 8 to 10 points
Axios reported on Oct. 18 that Fox News, NBC News and Washington Post polls all showed Trump's approval at new lows. The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll put his approval at 33% among adults and 66% disapproval, four points lower than in July. Fox News found 36% approval among registered voters and Democrats ahead 54% to 45% on the House generic ballot. NBC News found 34% approval and 71% of adults saying the country is on the wrong track. Democrats led by eight, nine and 10 points among registered voters in the three polls, Axios said. Axios reported MAGA Republicans approve at 95%, other Republicans at 47%.
The House majority is decided by a few dozen competitive seats, and a generic-ballot lead of eight to 10 points historically points to sizable gains for the party out of power. The gap between MAGA and other Republicans shows where the president's coalition is thinning.
If you live in a swing district, expect heavier ad spending and outreach in the final two weeks. Early voting is already underway in many states, so these numbers describe a race that is partly locked in.
Democrats point to cost of living, the Iran war and immigration enforcement as driving dissatisfaction, and argue the polls show a broad shift rather than a one-off dip.
Republicans note that polls have underestimated Trump-aligned voters before, and Political Wire wrote that GOP hopes rest partly on a polling miss. Turnout among less engaged voters could narrow the gap.
Confirmed: three independent polls point the same way. Not settled: how the national number maps onto individual districts. Watch the Texas Senate race and early-vote turnout data this week.
DailyDrop U.S. No. 15 · October 19, 2026