Early November fuel data shows a sharp swing: from a R4 petrol rise to just over R1
Early Central Energy Fund data for November first showed petrol up R4.28-R4.57 and diesel up R2.56-R2.91, then a later snapshot showed under-recoveries of R1.27-R1.34 for petrol and about zero for diesel (IOL, 2oceansvibe, Scrolla, Archynewsy). The numbers are unaudited and indicative. The official announcement is due at the end of October, with prices effective 4 November.
It shows how quickly the fuel outlook changes with oil and the rand, and it sets expectations before the 21 October budget statement.
Do not plan around the first number you see. A smaller rise is more likely if oil and the rand hold, but one bad week could reverse it.
One analysis says the smaller number is more likely.
Others warn that Hormuz risk could send oil back above US$105 within days.
Treat these as weather forecasts. The decisive figure is the average of the full review period, which ends on the last Wednesday of October. Watch the rand and Brent, not headlines.
DailyDrop South Africa edition No. 6 · Morning · SAT., OCT. 10, 2026