On Monday, October 5, after Brazil’s first round, the Ibovespa rose 7.70% to a record 206,911 points and the real gained 4.11% to 5.00 per dollar (Infobae). Petrobras advanced 8.1%, and Bradesco and Itaú rose 18.8% and 15.5% on Wall Street (La Nación, Infobae). In Argentina, the S&P Merval gained 3.7% to 2,869,488 points and country risk fell 49 units, or 7.6%, to 599 basis points; dollar bonds rose about 2.1% and the ADRs of Mercado Libre, Banco Francés, Supervielle and Telecom gained between 7.1% and 9.6% (Infobae). Investors bet on a stricter fiscal policy if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
Brazil is Argentina’s largest trading partner, and its fiscal stability shapes perceptions of the whole region. Lower country risk makes financing cheaper for the state and for companies.
If you hold savings in Argentine bonds or stocks, Monday was a good session, but a single day does not set a trend. For loans and the dollar, low country risk helps, though the runoff is still to come.
The market rewards the promise of fiscal adjustment and openness that Bolsonaro represents, and that lifts assets across the region.
A rebound driven by an electoral expectation can reverse if Lula wins or if US rates rise, and it does not reflect changes in the Argentine economy.
The rebound has an external, political cause. To see whether it lasts, watch the runoff polls, how the bonds behave with country risk below 600 and whether the government uses the window to place debt. Also follow US Treasury rates.
Infobae, La Nación (Oct 5, 2026)
Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round win set off euphoria in São Paulo and pulled Argentine assets up: the S&P Merval rose 3.7% and country risk fell to 599
São Paulo’s stock exchange hit a record, the real gained more than 4% and Argentine dollar bonds rose about 2%. Investors are betting on a more orderly fiscal policy in Brazil ahead of the October 25 runoff.
The Ibovespa, the index of the São Paulo stock exchange, closed on Monday, October 5, up 7.70% at 206,911 points, an all-time record, according to Infobae. The real gained 4.11% and the dollar ended at 5.00 reais. Petrobras rose 8.1%, and the banks Bradesco and Itaú jumped 18.8% and 15.5% on Wall Street, according to La Nación and Infobae. Investors read the result as a chance of more spending restraint, privatizations and tax changes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the runoff. Lula defends more social spending and higher taxes on high incomes.
In Buenos Aires, the S&P Merval gained 3.7% and closed at 2,869,488 points, according to Infobae. Country risk fell 49 units, or 7.6%, to 599 basis points, after closing Friday at around 648. The dollar bonds, Bonares and Globales, rose about 2.1% on average. Among the ADRs on Wall Street, Mercado Libre advanced 9.6%, Banco Francés 7.7%, Supervielle 7.6% and Telecom 7.1%. DailyDrop did not see a long-term analysis: the rebound depends on Brazil’s result being confirmed and on US interest rates not rising again.