209,066.90Ibovespa · Oct. 9 close · +1.38% · record

DailyDrop.

R$ 4.992Commercial dollar · Oct. 9 · −0.50%
Ibovespa209,066.90▲1.38%10/9USD/BRL4.99▼0.50%10/9S&P 5007,811.54▲0.59%10/9WTI$91.63▲0.19%10/9Gold$4,219.90▲1.52%10/9
Elections 2026 · PresidentPress ✓ 6 outlets · poll as reported by the press

Campaign broadcast time debuts in the runoff, Anitta declares her vote for Lula and Datafolha in the Federal District gives Flávio 49% to 43%

TV and radio advertising runs until October 23, with equal time for both candidates. The TSE took down a website that paid cryptocurrency for support of Flávio, and Record cancelled the debate between the two.

Free campaign broadcast time returned to radio and TV on Friday, October 9, for the runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT). According to Gazeta do Povo and Revista Oeste, the broadcasts run until October 23, with equal time for both, Monday through Saturday. In the debut, Flávio promised to keep the social programs, and Lula criticized cuts made under Jair Bolsonaro’s government, G1 reports. Valor sums up each side’s strategy: Flávio wants to talk about voters’ real lives, and Lula is counting on fear of what the opponent would bring. Lula also took part in a march in the Federal District, and Flávio met with political leaders in Rio, according to G1. On the polls, Datafolha in the Federal District gave Flávio 49% and Lula 43% in the runoff, G1 reports; among valid votes, Folha’s calculation is 54% to 46%. In other results from the institute, 43% expect life to stay the same if Lula wins, and the electorate is split over what a Flávio government would be like, according to G1 and Folha. The institute also asked why some voters did not vote in the first round: travel, health, lack of interest and work lead the reasons, and 13% cite lack of interest, G1 and Folha report; according to G1, abstention in 2026 was the highest since 1998. For 78%, it is very important that the two take part in debates, but Record cancelled the debate it had planned, Valor and Gazeta do Povo report.

Singer Anitta declared her vote for Lula in a social media video, criticized Flávio and said she had been naive in underestimating Bolsonarism, according to Valor and Folha. On the legal front, a TSE justice ordered the suspension of a website that offered cryptocurrencies to anyone who promoted content in favor of Flávio, G1, Valor and Agência Brasil report; Folha reported that the group behind the token fell out after losses and removed politics from the site until the election. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques issued a rule to speed up the review of advertising cases at the TSE after criticism, according to Valor and Folha, which also records a legal war in the runoff, with orders from justices against Lula and a PT lawsuit against Flávio. Also according to Folha, Flávio’s front-runner status is already affecting the contest for leadership of the Chamber and the Senate, and the centrão is on the move, with the reelection of Hugo Motta and Alcolumbre in doubt. In the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre put the PEC ending the 6x1 schedule on the agenda for Wednesday the 14th, according to G1, Valor and CNN Brasil. The market read the picture as favorable to Flávio, and the Ibovespa closed at a record. The election will be decided on October 25, and Monday the 12th is the holiday of Our Lady of Aparecida, with the stock exchange closed.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take
By the numbers
49% vs. 43%Flávio vs. Lula in the Federal District, runoff (Datafolha)
78%say debates are very important (Datafolha)
Oct. 23last day of campaign broadcast time; voting on Oct. 25
MarketsPress ✓ 4 outlets

Ibovespa closes at a record above 209,000 points, dollar falls below R$ 5 and September IPCA comes in above expectations

The Ibovespa rose 1.38% on Friday, October 9, and closed at 209,067 points, the highest closing level in its history, according to Valor and InfoMoney. The day’s high was 209,713 points, and the index gained 8.82% over the week, InfoMoney reports. The commercial dollar fell to near R$ 4.98 and lost 4.44% in five days, according to Agência Brasil; Valor calls it the biggest weekly drop after a first round since the creation of the real. The reports attribute the move to polls showing Flávio ahead. On prices, IBGE reported that September’s IPCA rose 0.82%, above the 0.73% expected in a Reuters survey, and 12-month inflation reached 4.58%; electricity, food and transportation weighed. Valor notes that asset manager Eleven sees room for further gains and projects the Ibovespa at 235,000 points in 2027. Reuters notes that Trump’s measures to expand diesel supply have not yet lowered prices, which keeps fuel on inflation’s radar. In New York, the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.54 points, the Nasdaq closed at 27,366.17 and the Dow Jones at 51,654.95. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.244%, WTI at about US$ 91.6 and gold near US$ 4,220. The B3 does not open on Monday, the 12th, because of the holiday, and resumes trading on Tuesday.

Open
Word of the day
IPCAInflation

Brazil’s official inflation index, calculated by IBGE. It measures the change in prices for households and is the benchmark for the Central Bank’s target.


Brazil · SecurityPress ✓ 6 outlets

Police kill armed man and rescue 13 child hostages at Curitiba daycare center

A man armed with a knife burst into a Municipal Early Childhood Education Center (CMEI) in Curitiba on the afternoon of Friday the 9th and held children hostage, according to G1, Folha and Valor. The city government says 13 children were involved, according to Band and Tribuna PR. Both outlets report that the man entered around 3 p.m. and that Bope police officers negotiated for more than two hours.

Around 6:15 p.m., the team went in, killed the suspect and brought the children out; they are alive, Band and Tribuna PR report. Police said he suffered from schizophrenia, according to G1. Students from a neighboring school were taken out safely, ND Mais reports. Accounts differ on how many people were at the site at the start; the motive was not disclosed.

Open
World · International justicePress ✓ 5 outlets

Navi Pillay wins the Nobel Peace Prize, and the US responds with sanctions on the International Criminal Court

South African lawyer Navanethem “Navi” Pillay won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for her work on international justice and human rights, AP, Reuters and G1 report. Pillay worked at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and was the UN’s head of human rights, according to G1 and BBC. Hours after the announcement, the US imposed sweeping sanctions on the court, according to AP and Reuters; for AP, the move is part of an offensive to dismantle the court.

The ICC prosecutor condemned the sanctions and said the work will continue, Reuters reports. In an analysis, Folha says that sanctioning the court is something new and dangerous for multilateralism. President Donald Trump criticized Norway for not giving him the prize and said the country carries an “indelible stain,” according to Reuters and G1; the prize is decided by a committee independent of the Norwegian government.

Open

WorldPress ✓ 6 outlets

Magnitude 7.7 earthquake hits Panama, and Trump announces that Russia will supply diesel to the US

A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Panama on Friday the 9th, damaged buildings and triggered tsunami alerts in the Pacific, according to G1, Valor, BBC, Guardian and Reuters. The first bulletin from the USGS, the US geological survey, put it at 7.6. A second tremor, of 6.6, followed, G1 reports. CNN Brasil notes that the tsunami alert was cancelled and that the capital’s airport suspended flights. A toll of dead and injured was not confirmed in the sources consulted.

In Washington, Trump said, after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, that Russia will supply diesel to the US, with a first delivery of 300,000 tonnes, according to Reuters and AP; AP sees the move as an easing of sanctions to lower prices before the U.S. midterm elections. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that letting Russia sell diesel to the US is “investment in the war,” Reuters and Valor report. The Kremlin said Putin played down an immediate resumption of negotiations, according to Reuters. In the Middle East, the Emirates said a flydubai co-pilot was planning an attack on a flight to Tel Aviv, Reuters and G1 report.

Open
In brief
  • Vance says he will not watch the livestream of the Fort Hood shooter’s execution; Trump remains silentReuters · AP
  • Federal Court suspends injunction that delayed the takedown of bets until after the electionsValor · Folha
  • Raízen approves listing a subsidiary on the stock exchange and prepares the spin-off of its fuel businessFolha
  • Anvisa authorizes human trials of the first 100% Brazilian malaria vaccineG1
  • José Sarney undergoes surgery in São Luís after intestinal obstructionPoder360 · Folha
  • Delta cuts profit forecast as fuel costs rise by US$ 6 billionReuters
  • EU and China reach an understanding to halve exports of hybridsReuters
Seven minutes every morning, one front page

Unverified — what we could not confirm

“The Panama earthquake had a magnitude of 8.0.” The first alerts spoke of 8.0 and 7.6. The figure most cited later by the press is 7.7.
“The two air accidents in Minas are related.” There is no indication in the sources consulted. The Military Police was on a check flight and the cause was not disclosed.
“Datafolha shows Flávio 54% to 46% nationwide.” That is the result among valid votes in the Federal District only, according to Folha. The national score released on Thursday was 52% to 48%.

Influencer watch

  • Anitta, cantora Instagram · 10/9Singer Anitta declared her vote for Lula in a video and criticised Flávio Bolsonaro, Valor reports.
  • Donald Trump, US President Truth Social · 10/9Trump shared a Truth Social post criticising the Nobel Peace Prize committee and the laureate.
  • Eduardo Paes, político rede social · 10/8Eduardo Paes conceded defeat in Rio on social media, saying a court decision is respected (Valor).
  • Mia Goth, actress Instagram · 10/9Goth addressed a viral Instagram post about her ex after filing for divorce from Shia LaBeouf (ARY News).

Statements as posted, not fact-checked.

Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDECampaign broadcast time debuts in the runoff, Anitta declares her vote for Lula and Datafolha in the Federal District gives Flávio 49% to 43%Elections 2026 · PresidentIbovespa closes at a record above 209,000 points, dollar falls below R$ 5 and September IPCA comes in above expectationsMarketsPolice kill armed man and rescue 13 child hostages at Curitiba daycare centerBrazil · SecurityNavi Pillay wins the Nobel Peace Prize, and the US responds with sanctions on the International Criminal CourtWorld · International justiceMagnitude 7.7 earthquake hits Panama, and Trump announces that Russia will supply diesel to the USWorld