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On Monday (12), Justice Marco Aurélio Belizze of the TSE ordered Flávio Bolsonaro and allies to delete, within 24 hours, a video that linked the pro-Lula rally on Avenida Paulista to drug use with images taken out of context. G1 rated the content #FAKE, and Valor describes the scenes as drug users in Chile. Lula’s coalition went to the court against the post, and UOL, Terra and Brasil 247 report that Tarcísio and Flávio circulated the video. The same day, TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques ordered an analysis of the “Lula’s Army” channel; the technical staff did not find the false content under investigation, but pointed to electoral risks, according to G1 and Estadão. Nunes Marques also banned the circulation of an oil workers’ union newspaper at the request of Flávio’s campaign. PT deputies Rui Falcão and Rogério Correia asked the STF to investigate Nunes Marques for possible crimes linked to the Master case. He scheduled for today (13) a meeting with the two campaigns.

The Electoral Court decides what stays on the air during the campaign, and two weeks before the runoff each removal order weighs on the contest. Divergent decisions within a few hours, like those on the pro-Lula channel, undermine the trust of people following the election.

Before passing along a video of a rally or protest, check the source: in the Paulista case, the scenes were not from the rally. Content removed by court order can return if the decision is reversed, and the same holds the other way around.

Those who defend Belizze’s order say that the Electoral Court must contain misleading material in the middle of the campaign and that Lula’s coalition has the right to ask for removal.

Critics of Nunes Marques, including PT members and the FUP, speak of censorship, and a Folha opinion piece speaks of pro-Flávio censorship. Flávio says Janones deletes links to fake news so as to leave no trace, according to Poder360.

What decides the course of the week is today’s meeting and what comes out of it in writing. If the court sets a clear criterion for taking down content, the orders stop looking like a lottery. It is also worth watching whether Flávio and allies comply with the 24 hours and whether the STF moves forward on the request against Nunes Marques. So far, each decision has been followed by another that contradicts it.

G1 · Folha · Valor · UOL · Terra · Brasil 247 · Poder360 · Agência Brasil · Estadão · Metrópoles · CNN Brasil · WSCOM · Revista Fórum (Oct. 12–13) · decisions as reported by the press

Elections 2026 · Electoral JusticePress ✓ 9 outlets · decisions as reported by the press

TSE orders Flávio and allies to delete fake video about the Paulista rally, and Nunes Marques summons both campaigns to a meeting

The order gives 24 hours for removal. The same day, the court’s technical staff did not find the false content under investigation on the “Lula’s Army” channel, and PT deputies asked the STF to investigate the court’s president.

Justice Marco Aurélio Belizze of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) ordered candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to delete a misleading video about the rally of Lula supporters on Avenida Paulista, G1 reports. The order also applies to allies who passed the material along, according to Valor, and gives 24 hours for removal, according to Folha. The video linked participants in the demonstration to drug use with images taken out of context. G1 rated the content #FAKE in its Fact or Fake section, Valor describes the scenes as drug users in Chile, and UOL notes that Tarcísio shared an image made outside Brazil. UOL, Terra and Brasil 247 report that Tarcísio and Flávio circulated the video. Lula’s coalition went to the TSE against the post, Poder360 and Agência Brasil report. The case adds to other court decisions that were questioned on Monday (12). The sources consulted do not say whether Belizze’s order has already been complied with. TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques ordered the technical staff to analyze the “Lula’s Army” channel on WhatsApp, G1, UOL and Metrópoles report. The technicians did not find the false content under investigation, but pointed to electoral risks, according to G1 and Estadão. Folha says Nunes Marques took down the channel of deputy André Janones without documents showing false news, and Estadão says Nunes Marques cited a breach by Meta, owner of WhatsApp, of an agreement with the TSE.

Also on Monday, Nunes Marques banned the circulation of the newspaper “Petróleo dos Brasileiros” (“Brazilians’ Oil”), produced by an oil workers’ union linked to the FUP, at the request of Flávio’s campaign, G1 and Estadão report. Revista Fórum records the censorship complaint made by the FUP and other unions. PT deputies Rui Falcão (SP) and Rogério Correia (MG) took to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) a notice of fact asking for an investigation of Nunes Marques for possible crimes linked to Banco Master and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, Valor, Folha and UOL report. A notice of fact is not a formal accusation, and the sources consulted carry no response from the justice. After the criticism, Nunes Marques scheduled for today, Tuesday (13), a meeting with the Flávio and Lula campaigns, according to G1, UOL and Poder360. The sources consulted do not give the time or the agenda. Flávio, for his part, says Janones deletes links to fake news so as to leave no trace, Poder360 reports. Television also joined the fray: Flávio’s campaign broadcast aired without audio, and the TSE blamed the failure on the Pool de Mídias, CNN Brasil and WSCOM report. The candidate asked whether it was a coincidence. The runoff is on October 25.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take

By the numbers

24 hoursdeadline to remove the video, according to Folha

10/13Nunes Marques’s meeting with the campaigns (G1, UOL)

10/25date of the presidential runoff

Elections 2026 · PollsQuaest in the Federal District ✓ 3 outlets · PoderData in Amazonas: Poder360 (1 outlet)

Quaest gives Flávio 50% to 40% in the Federal District, PoderData shows a tie in Amazonas, and the national polls come out this week

In the Federal District, the Quaest poll, commissioned by Globo, shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 50% and Lula (PT) with 40% in the presidential runoff, G1 and CNN Brasil report. In the local race, Governor Celina Leão (PP) has 53%, against 33% for Leandro Grass (PT), according to G1 and Valor, and 57% rate her administration as positive, G1 reports. Valor notes that it is the institute’s first poll in the capital since the first round, on October 4. In Amazonas, PoderData shows 49% for each candidate, Poder360 reports; the other sources consulted do not carry the survey. Folha also published an analysis of the first round: according to the paper, Flávio surpassed his father’s vote in every income bracket, and Lula lost votes across almost the whole income distribution compared with 2022, with a rise among the richest 4%. Two national polls come out this week: Quaest on Wednesday (14) and Datafolha on Thursday (15), G1 and Estadão report. CartaCapital and Veja also record new surveys by CNT/MDA and Ipespe, whose figures are not in the sources consulted. A poll is a snapshot of the moment, with a margin of error, and the result in one federative unit does not project that of the country.

Open

Word of the day

Margin of errorPolling

The variation, up or down, that a poll’s result may have because it is done with a sample, and not with all voters. A difference smaller than the margin can be a technical tie.

Inside

Moraes lets Flávio resume visits to his father, and he says he will go todayThe visit had been suspended for 90 days, Terra and Folha BV report. Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest.Brazil · ✓ 5 outlets

Pope Leo XIV is hospitalized today in Rome to have a lung nodule removedThe Vatican canceled the pope’s audiences until October 20, G1 reports.World · ✓ 3 outlets

Robert Hall and Michael Woodford win the Nobel in EconomicsThe Americans were honored for studies on how to stabilize the economy, AP and Reuters say.Economy · ✓ 4 outlets

Kospi falls more than 5%, and Asian stock markets retreat on AI worriesAP tied the drop to a selloff in shares of semiconductors; Reuters speaks of nervousness ahead of US banks’ earnings reports.Markets · ✓ 3 outlets

Court again suspends Vasco x Boca at the Maracanã, and the club appealsThe Sudamericana match is set for October 20, and Conmebol gave a final deadline, Agência Brasil and ge report.Sports · ✓ 3 outlets

Economy · MarketsIMF ✓ 4 outlets · markets ✓ 3 outlets

IMF raises the world forecast and cuts Brazil’s, and the B3 reopens today after the holiday with Asian markets down

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for world economic growth slightly and lowered those for Brazil and China in the Global Economic Outlook report, released on the night of Monday (12), Folha reports. G1 says the fund still expects modest growth, of 3.1% in 2026, and Valor notes that the world economy showed “remarkable resilience” in the face of the worst energy shock in decades, but could slow sharply if financing costs and inflation are not contained. G1 and Valor point out that the artificial intelligence boom concentrates the gain in a few countries. Brazil’s figures do not appear in the sources consulted. For Latin America, the fund recommends attention to inflation, projected at 4.2% in 2026, Estadão reports.

On Monday (12), the B3 did not open because of the holiday, according to Money Times and InfoMoney, and so this edition carries no close for the Ibovespa or the dollar. In New York, the day had little liquidity because of Columbus Day: the indexes closed in opposite directions, with technology shares down and energy shares up, Valor reports. Oil rose almost US$ 2 a barrel, according to Folha, and closed above US$ 106, the highest level in two weeks, Valor reports; gold fell, according to Valor and Bloomberg. On Tuesday, Asian stock markets plunged on worries about AI, Reuters reports, and South Korea’s Kospi lost more than 5%, according to AP. That is the external climate in which the B3 reopens today.

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Brazil · Public securityPress ✓ 2 outlets

Civil Police and PM Internal Affairs investigate two deaths in stops involving dozens of shots in São Paulo, and the camera footage has not yet arrived

The Civil Police and the Military Police Internal Affairs unit of São Paulo are investigating two stops that ended in death, in which officers fired dozens of times, G1 reports, which says the PM officers were taken off duty. In Moema, in the south zone, Gustavo Munis de Santana, 20, was killed in the early hours of Saturday (10) with at least 27 shots, according to G1 and Folha. He was buried on Monday (12), and his sister said goodbye on social media, G1 reports. The family’s lawyer, Ana Facillia Meira, called the action unacceptable, Folha reports, and said he had already been stopped violently by PM officers on other occasions, according to G1. On Monday, the Civil Police had still not received the footage from the officers’ body cameras, G1 and Folha report.

In the other case, in Vila Dionísia, in the north zone, Antonio Nunes Batista was killed with 24 shots on October 3, after being stopped in a moment described as a psychotic episode, according to G1. Antonio’s sister says he had schizophrenia and asks whether the police do not know how to deal with a person in that situation, G1 reports. The summaries consulted do not carry the PM’s version of either case nor record any formal complaint against the officers.

Open

WorldPress ✓ 7 outlets

Trump defends the diesel deal with Russia, Ukraine says attacks on energy continue, and new attacks on Saudi Arabia push up oil

US President Donald Trump defended the deal to buy diesel from Russia after criticism from Republicans and Democrats, Reuters and Valor report. According to Reuters sources, the United States hopes the deal will help soften Moscow in peace negotiations, and Russia says it can export up to 3.5 million tons of diesel a month by the end of the year. The “energy ceasefire” announced by Trump has not held: Ukraine accuses Russia of violating the truce, Reuters, AP and PBS report, and G1 reports new attacks, with a gas power plant hit in Kharkiv, while Russia does not confirm the deal. The Kremlin rejected the Ukrainian idea of a 60-day ceasefire and says it wants a global peace deal, Reuters reports, which also records the adoption of almost 1,600 new European Union sanctions against Russia.

In the Gulf, the Houthis announced a new attack on Riyadh airport on Monday (12), and Saudi Arabia said it destroyed the missile, G1 reports, which also reports the interception of another projectile launched from Yemen. Saturday’s (10) attack on the same airport left 12 dead and more than 300 injured, according to G1. Reuters says the Saudi warning system was silent before the attacks, and AP that the Saudis are investigating why the defenses failed. Airlines canceled flights to the country, Reuters reports. The barrel of oil closed above US$ 106, according to Valor. In another hot spot, Bulgaria’s prime minister said drones hit ships near the Black Sea coast and that one of them sank, Reuters and Euronews report.

Open

In brief

Hacker attack shuts down supermarket refrigerators in France and causes food losses; Reuters cites 150 Intermarché stores hitÉpoca Negócios · Reuters
Meta launches Muse Wonder, an AI model that challenges OpenAI and AnthropicG1 · Reuters
LVMH fashion and leather sales fall 5% in the third quarter, with China weakerValor · Reuters
Mega-Sena could pay R$ 150 million in Wednesday’s (14) drawG1 · Agência Brasil
São Paulo starts fining today those who break rules for bicycles and electric scootersG1
Uruguay River rises above flood level, and about 480 people are out of their homes in Rio Grande do SulG1
Actor RJ Mitte, Walter Jr. of “Breaking Bad”, dies at 34G1 · CNN Brasil · Omelete
Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel kill five people on Mexico’s Pacific coastGuardian

Seven minutes every morning, one front page

Unverified — what we could not confirm

“The video shows a protester using drugs at Lula’s rally on Paulista.” Not what the sources show. G1 says it is #FAKE, Valor describes the scenes as drug users in Chile, and the TSE ordered the video removed.

“Flávio’s campaign broadcast went silent on purpose.” The candidate raised the suspicion. The TSE blamed the failure on the Pool de Mídias, according to CNN Brasil, and the sources consulted offer no proof of intent.

“The ‘Lula’s Army’ channel spread fake news.” The TSE technical staff did not find the false content under investigation, but pointed to electoral risks, according to G1 and Estadão.

What to watch today

Tue 10/13 (today)Nunes Marques receives the Flávio and Lula campaigns, and the 24-hour deadline to delete the Paulista video expires. Flávio says he will visit his father, Jair Bolsonaro. The pope is hospitalized in Rome for surgery. The B3 reopens after the holiday. The Senate resumes consideration of the PEC ending the 6x1 schedule, according to Folha. São Paulo starts fining bicycles and electric scooters.Wed 10/14Quaest releases the first national presidential poll of the runoff. Mega-Sena draw.Thu 10/15Datafolha releases a runoff poll.This weekHeavy rain in São Paulo through Thursday, according to the Civil Defense, and new storms in Rio Grande do Sul, where the Uruguay River remains high.Later10/20: date set for Vasco x Boca at the Maracanã, a match now suspended by the courts, with requests from the MP-RJ and Vasco to reconsider. 10/25: runoff of the presidential election.For readersThe next national holiday is All Souls’ Day, on November 2, a Monday, according to G1 and Folha.

Glossary · dotted words — politics, economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.

INSIDETSE orders Flávio and allies to delete fake video about the Paulista rally, and Nunes Marques summons both campaigns to a meetingElections 2026 · Electoral JusticeQuaest gives Flávio 50% to 40% in the Federal District, PoderData shows a tie in Amazonas, and the national polls come out this weekElections 2026 · PollsIMF raises the world forecast and cuts Brazil’s, and the B3 reopens today after the holiday with Asian markets downEconomy · MarketsCivil Police and PM Internal Affairs investigate two deaths in stops involving dozens of shots in São Paulo, and the camera footage has not yet arrivedBrazil · Public securityTrump defends the diesel deal with Russia, Ukraine says attacks on energy continue, and new attacks on Saudi Arabia push up oilWorld