On Tuesday (13), the MDB formalized, at an event with Flávio Bolsonaro, the support of most of the party for the PL candidate in the runoff, according to G1 and Valor; one of the reports consulted says the party’s president had already anticipated the majority support. G1 counted 16 state chapters with Flávio and ten with Lula; Valor recorded 17 of the 27 with Flávio. Valor and Poder360 reported the ten that declared a vote for Lula, and Agência Brasil recorded the MDB’s backing in the North and Northeast. The party’s leader in the Senate defended these sections, according to G1. Flávio said he will not attend Sunday’s (18) Band debate, and Lula confirmed he will, according to CNN Brasil and Valor. The polls diverge: PoderData/Aya gives Flávio 51% to 49%, according to Poder360, and the BTG/Nexus poll appears as a Flávio lead in Veja and Folha and as a technical tie in CartaCapital.
The MDB has a chapter in all 27 states, and local support can help organize the runoff campaign, although each voter decides on their own. The split shows that the contest between Lula and Flávio cuts across parties and that regional chapters follow their own interests.
A party’s endorsement does not decide your vote, but it changes the campaign’s structure and the platforms in the states. If you want to compare the candidates, Sunday’s Band debate will have Lula, and Flávio said he will not attend; his decision on the Globo debate is still open.
For Flávio’s allies, the backing of most of the MDB widens the candidate’s base in the states and in Congress and shows that he attracts the center.
For Lula’s allies, the ten chapters that stayed with the president show that adherence to Flávio is far from unanimous and that the MDB is split by region.
Counting chapters is only part of the math. What matters is whether the MDB’s mayors, councilors and local candidates will work for Flávio or for Lula in the two weeks that remain. The count also varies between outlets (16 or 17), so it is worth waiting for the party’s official list. On the debate, the point to follow is Flávio’s decision on the Globo one.
G1 · Valor · Poder360 · CNN Brasil · Agência Brasil · Folha · CartaCapital · Veja (Oct. 13–14) · polls as reported by the press
MDB formalizes majority support for Flávio, but ten state chapters stay with Lula; Flávio says he will not attend the Band debate
With 12 days to go to the runoff, the party split: G1 counted 16 state chapters with Flávio, and Valor, 17. Lula confirmed he will attend Sunday’s (18) debate, and the polls disagree on who is ahead.
The MDB on Tuesday (13) formalized the support of most of the party for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the runoff, at an event with the candidate, according to G1 and Valor. The support is not unanimous. G1 counted 16 state chapters with Flávio and ten with Lula; Valor recorded, earlier, 17 of the 27 chapters with the PL candidate. The sources consulted do not explain the one-chapter difference between the two numbers, and the count may change until the 25th. The ten that declared a vote for Lula were reported by Valor and Poder360, and Agência Brasil recorded the MDB’s backing in the North and Northeast. In the evening, the party’s leader in the Senate came to the defense of these state sections, according to G1. Also according to G1, it was at that event that Flávio said he will not go to the TV Bandeirantes debate on Sunday (18), which CNN Brasil, Valor and Poder360 also report. Lula confirmed he will attend, according to CNN Brasil and Valor. Poder360 reports that Flávio is considering the Globo debate, and Folha says his campaign did not sign the rules for that debate and does not guarantee his presence.
The race is tight, but the pollsters do not agree on who leads. The latest PoderData/Aya gives Flávio 51% and Lula 49%, according to Poder360, which speaks of a recovery by Lula compared with the previous round (53% to 47%, as we reported on Monday). On the BTG/Nexus poll, Veja and Folha speak of Flávio ahead, and CartaCapital of a technical tie; the exact numbers are not in the sources consulted. On Tuesday night, Quaest released state polls, according to G1: in Rio Grande do Norte, Lula has 59% and Flávio 33%; in Acre, Flávio has 60% and Lula 28%; in Amazonas, Lula has 47% and Flávio 43%. Quaest’s first national runoff poll comes out today, according to G1, and Datafolha releases its own on Thursday (15), Folha reports. State polls do not add up to a national result, and all of them have a margin of error. On the streets, Lula’s allies held rallies in 11 state capitals on Tuesday, according to G1; in São Paulo, Folha records the presence of Haddad, Tebet and Marina Silva, after first-round defeats.