On Wednesday, October 14, Quaest released the first presidential poll of the runoff, commissioned by Globo and O Globo, according to G1. Flávio Bolsonaro has 46% of voting intentions, and Lula, 44%. By the range in Felipe Nunes’s analysis, Flávio could have 44% to 48%, and Lula, 42% to 46%, which leaves them in a technical tie. The rejection rate is 54% for Flávio and 53% for Lula, according to Valor, which records a drop in disapproval of the government. Among those who cast a blank or spoiled ballot or skipped the first round, 43% say they will vote for Lula, according to G1. In state polls from the same round, Flávio has 48% to Lula’s 42% in Tocantins and 51% to 38% in Espírito Santo. The number of respondents and the fieldwork dates do not appear in the sources consulted.
With 11 days to go before the vote, it is the first comparable snapshot of the runoff, and it guides the tone of the debates and the strategy of both campaigns. A technical tie means the observed difference may be just an effect of the statistical margin.
A poll shows voting intention from a few days ago, with possible error, and does not predict the result. Compare institutes using the same methodology before drawing conclusions, and be wary of unsourced numbers circulating on social media.
Lula’s campaign sees a “slight improvement” and stresses that Flávio’s rejection is the higher of the two, according to UOL and Valor; it bets on the Band debate as a turning point.
Those who look at the headline number stress that Flávio appears ahead in the national round and in the two state polls released alongside it, and that Poder360 sees in it a confirmation of PoderData/Aya.
The number to follow is not the 46 to 44, but the difference between institutes. If tonight’s Datafolha repeats a tie within the margin, the race tends to be decided in the debates and in whether the voters who skipped the first round and now say they will vote for Lula actually go to the polls. It is worth waiting for two or three rounds with the same methodology before talking about a trend.
G1 · Poder360 · UOL · Reuters · Valor · Metrópoles · Veja (Oct. 14–15) · Quaest poll as reported by the press
Quaest gives Flávio 46% and Lula 44% in the first runoff poll, a technical tie
The survey, commissioned by Globo, shows nearly equal rejection rates, 54% and 53%. Datafolha releases its own poll tonight, and the first debate is on Sunday.
Quaest released the first presidential poll of the runoff on Wednesday, October 14, commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo, according to G1. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 46% of voting intentions and Lula (PT) has 44%, report G1, Poder360, UOL and Reuters, which describes the senator as slightly ahead. In the analysis by Felipe Nunes published by G1, Flávio could be between 44% and 48%, and Lula between 42% and 46%, which is two points up or down and amounts to a technical tie. The rejection rate, which measures who says they will not vote for the candidate under any circumstances, is 54% for Flávio and 53% for Lula, according to Valor, which also records a drop in disapproval of the government. The Lula campaign sees a “slight improvement” in the numbers, according to UOL, and bets the debate will be decisive, according to Metrópoles. Among those who cast a blank or spoiled ballot or skipped the first round, 43% say they will vote for Lula, G1 reports. Valor adds that 43% of respondents fear the return of the Bolsonaro family to power more, the same share as those who fear Lula’s reelection more. The sources consulted do not give the number of respondents or the fieldwork dates here.
State polls by Quaest released the same day point in the same direction for Flávio: in Tocantins he has 48% to Lula’s 42%, and in Espírito Santo, 51% to 38%, G1 reports. G1 also records that 10% of Flávio’s first-round voters decided their vote on election day, against 5% among Lula’s. Poder360 says the result confirms PoderData/Aya, an earlier survey that already had Flávio ahead, and Veja details where the votes of candidates who did not make the runoff are going. A poll aggregator cited by UOL puts the gap between the two at 3.6 points, a number that depends on a single source. The poll came out hours before the Senate approved the end of the 6x1 schedule, which the Lula campaign treats as a trump card, according to Valor. The calendar until the vote, on October 25, concentrates the next tests. Datafolha releases a new poll today, early in the evening, G1 reports. Globo interviews the two candidates on the 15th and 16th and holds its debate on October 23, according to G1. The first meeting between Lula and Flávio will be the Band debate, on Sunday the 18th at 8 p.m., in São Paulo, and both have confirmed they will attend, according to Terra and Valor. A poll is a snapshot of the moment, and a technical tie means the observed difference may fit within the margin of error.