CNN Brasil reported that the Futura institute registered 50.8% of valid votes for Flávio Bolsonaro and 49.2% for Lula in the runoff. The same CNN Brasil released that PoderData/AYA showed 50% for each candidate, and these two figures have only that source. Datafolha and Quaest were described by the press as a technical tie, and ten foreign outlets used the phrase "tight race". Datafolha released on Friday (16) that 96% intend to vote and 1% do not intend to. Margin of error and fieldwork dates are not confirmed in this edition’s sources.
With valid votes separated by less than two points, the turnout of those who hesitate or decide at the last minute weighs more than in elections with room to spare. People who live in states with tight voting feel this in the intensity of the campaign.
Compare at least three institutes before forming an opinion and look at the fieldwork date and margin of error of each. Ignore poll screenshots that do not name the institute.
A technical tie is not a forecast: it is a warning that the gap fits within the error. A one-point lead decides nothing.
CNN Brasil, Folha, G1, international press
Runoff enters the home stretch with Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied in the polls
Futura and PoderData/AYA, cited by CNN Brasil, show a gap of at most 1.6 points between the two; Datafolha and Quaest are described as a technical tie.
The race for the presidential runoff reached the end of the week with polls pointing to a balance between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Lula (PT). According to CNN Brasil, the Futura institute registered 50.8% of valid votes for Flávio and 49.2% for Lula, and PoderData/AYA showed 50% for each. Those two figures were released by a single outlet, CNN Brasil, and are attributed to it here. In parallel, the press described the picture in the Datafolha and Quaest polls as a technical tie, and ten international outlets repeated the phrase “tight race in the home stretch”.
On Friday (16), Folha de S.Paulo, G1 and Google News reported a new cut of the Datafolha poll: 96% of the electorate say they intend to vote in the runoff and 1% say they do not intend to show up. A French outlet, also cited among the day’s coverage, wrote that Lula had narrowed the gap to Flávio in one poll. The reports consulted do not carry, in the material available, the margin of error or the fieldwork dates of each survey, and for that reason the polls cannot be compared with one another.
The candidates’ schedules also saw movement. Flávio gave an interview to the journalist Renata Lo Prete, of Globo, and G1 published a #FATO or #FAKE fact-check of his statements. According to G1 and Google News, he said that naming his father “is not on the radar” and that Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro will not be foreign minister in a possible government. Lula campaigned in Juiz de Fora (MG) and, according to G1, said that Governor Cleitinho “only has something to gain” if he stays neutral in the race.
External factors entered the conversation. G1 reported that a letter from the Donald Trump administration says it supports the Brazilian electoral process and defends action against Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the PCC and the CV. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) began judging on Friday new rules for linking WhatsApp channels to campaigns. What remains unconfirmed, in this edition’s sources, is the fieldwork date and the sample of each poll cited.