Euro-area inflation hits 3.8% in September, and the CSO estimates Ireland at 3.9%
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro-area inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August and above the 3.6% expected (Business Today, Arise). Core inflation rose to 2.5% from 2.4%. The CSO's flash estimate for Ireland, on the harmonised measure, was 3.9%, with energy up 2.9% on the month and 15.3% on the year (AJ Bell, Trading Economics, Agriland). Morningstar reported that the ECB has raised rates twice this summer. The figures are flash estimates and may be revised.
Inflation at its highest in three years squeezes households and raises the chance of another ECB rate rise, which would feed into mortgage and loan costs.
If you have a tracker or variable mortgage, a further ECB rise would increase repayments. Energy is the driver, so heating oil, petrol and electricity are where you will feel it.
Policymakers argue that the rise is driven by energy and should fade if oil falls, so a hasty response could do more harm than good.
Hawks argue that with inflation at a three-year high, the ECB must act to stop higher inflation becoming a habit.
Watch the ECB's next meeting and the weight it puts on core inflation, which at 2.5% is much closer to target than the headline.
DailyDrop Ireland edition No. 1 · Morning · MON., OCT. 5, 2026