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ISEQ—EUR/USD1.1225▼0.65%10/2S&P 5007,722.72▲0.73%10/2WTI$91.11▼1.90%10/2Gold$4,162.30▼1.00%10/2
Politics · BudgetPress ✓ 3 outlets · package size per Davy; talks per unnamed sources

Budget 2027 is tomorrow: about €8.5bn to spend, and ministers still arguing over the last euro

Davy puts the package at roughly €8.5 billion, smaller than last year. Departments were still negotiating at the weekend, and the fuel excise cuts are among the decisions waiting on Tuesday.

Finance Minister Simon Harris and Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers are due to present Budget 2027 to the Dáil on Tuesday 6 October, according to the Irish Times and RTÉ. The stockbroker Davy put the package at about €8.5 billion, made up of roughly €7 billion in extra spending and €1.5 billion in tax measures. That would be smaller than last year's €9.4 billion. The Irish Examiner reported that Chambers held to a 6% growth limit on spending for 2027.

The final talks were rough. The Irish Times reported on Friday that most departments had not yet agreed their allocations. The Irish Examiner, citing sources, said some were offered about two-thirds of what they asked for, and that one meeting between Chambers and the Culture Minister Patrick O'Donovan ended after about eight minutes. Chambers said more had been written about the exchange than took place. Harris has said the income tax changes should be worth "hundreds of euros" to workers. The detail was not public at the time of writing, and DailyDrop does not report unconfirmed leaks of what is in it.

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By the numbers
€8.5bnreported size of the package (Davy, Irish Examiner)
6%spending growth limit for 2027 (Irish Examiner)
€9.4bnlast year's package, for comparison (Davy)
Economy · FuelPress ✓ 5 outlets · no decision announced yet

Fuel excise cuts expire this month unless Budget 2027 extends them, and an extension looks likely

The temporary cuts to excise duty, 27 cent a litre on petrol and 32 cent on diesel, were due to end in October, according to the Irish Times and the Irish Examiner. The Irish Times reported on 25 September that they could be extended "into early spring", and TheJournal reported that an extension beyond November looked likely. The Farmers Journal said Taoiseach Micheál Martin favoured a gradual unwinding with no "cliff edge".

The cost is the sticking point. The Irish Times has reported figures of about €100 million a month. No decision had been announced by Monday morning, and the Government has pointed to the budget as the place for it. Pump prices follow oil, which stayed near US$90 on the WTI benchmark on Friday.

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Word of the day
Excise dutyTax

A tax charged per litre of fuel, whatever the pump price, so a cut or a restoration shows up cent for cent.


World · EconomyPress ✓ 4 outlets · forecasts vary by outlet

US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below forecasts

The US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, according to Axios, SAN, the Deseret News and Advisor.ca, reporting the Labor Department release of Friday 2 October. Economists had expected about 90,000, though some outlets cited 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the figures for earlier months were revised down: July is now a loss of 10,000 jobs and August is 133,000.

The report comes just after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in about three years. Axios noted that the rise in unemployment partly reflects more people entering the workforce. Hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month, below the 0.3% expected. For Ireland, where the euro and US tech and pharma firms matter, weaker US data can move the dollar and global share prices. The S&P 500 still closed up 0.73% on Friday.

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World · EnergyPress ✓ 4 outlets · Iranian statements attributed

Iran says Hormuz stays closed until the US meets seven conditions, as oil holds near US$90

Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Sunday 4 October that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the United States meets seven conditions, according to the Oman Observer, BusinessDay, Business Today and the Monitor. He did not list the conditions. Reports link them to the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, an interim deal from June, and one report says they include lifting the US naval blockade, unfreezing assets and halting military pressure.

Iran put forward a plan at the UN General Assembly to reopen the strait within seven days if its terms were met. The reports say President Trump rejected it but left room for indirect talks. About a fifth of the world's oil normally passes through the strait. WTI closed at US$91.11 on Friday, down 1.90%. DailyDrop found no confirmation of any reopening.

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Economy · PricesPress ✓ 5 outlets · Irish figure is a CSO flash estimate

Euro-area inflation hits 3.8% in September, and the CSO estimates Ireland at 3.9%

Inflation across the euro area rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, the highest since September 2023 and above the 3.6% economists expected, according to Business Today and Arise, reporting the Eurostat flash estimate. Core inflation, which leaves out energy and food, rose to 2.5% from 2.4%. Energy was the main driver.

The Central Statistics Office put Irish inflation, on the EU harmonised measure, at 3.9% for the year to September, up 0.2% on August, according to AJ Bell, Trading Economics and Agriland. Energy prices rose 2.9% on the month and 15.3% on the year. Services were up 4.1% on the year. The CSO figure is a flash estimate and could be revised. Morningstar noted that the European Central Bank has raised rates twice this summer, and the new numbers add to the case for more.

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By the numbers
3.8%euro-area inflation, September (Eurostat flash)
3.9%Irish HICP, year to September (CSO flash)
15.3%Irish energy prices, year on year (CSO)
In brief
  • S&P 500 7,722.72 (+0.73%), WTI US$91.11 (−1.90%), gold US$4,162.3 (−1.00%) at Friday's US closemarket data
  • Euro STOXX 50 up 1.02% to 6,238.50 on FridayMarketScreener
  • US payrolls +29,000 in September; unemployment 4.2%Axios, SAN
  • Euro-area inflation 3.8% in September, highest since September 2023Business Today, Arise
  • CSO flash: Irish inflation 3.9%, energy up 15.3% on the yearAJ Bell, Agriland
  • Iran's Ghalibaf: Hormuz stays closed until seven conditions are metOman Observer, BusinessDay
  • Munster 26, Bulls 22 in the United Rugby Championship at Thomond ParkRugby365
  • Culture credit for 16-year-olds axed in budget talksIrish Examiner
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Unverified — what we cannot confirm

"The Strait of Hormuz is open and operating." Trump posted this on Truth Social in August (News24, SCMP). On 4 October Iran's chief negotiator said it stays closed until seven conditions are met (Oman Observer, BusinessDay).
Glossary · dotted words — economic, legal, political and science terms explained in context. The list grows every day.
INSIDEBudget 2027 is tomorrow: about €8.5bn to spend, and ministers still arguing over the last euroPolitics · BudgetFuel excise cuts expire this month unless Budget 2027 extends them, and an extension looks likelyEconomy · FuelUS employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below forecastsWorld · EconomyIran says Hormuz stays closed until the US meets seven conditions, as oil holds near US$90World · EnergyEuro-area inflation hits 3.8% in September, and the CSO estimates Ireland at 3.9%Economy · Prices