The BSE Sensex closed at 72,382.47 on Monday, up 472.77 points or 0.66 per cent, ending a four-session losing run. The NSE Nifty 50 rose 133.80 points, or 0.60 per cent, to 22,555.75 from 22,421.95. Outlets attributed the rebound to easing crude prices, buying across sectors, and a weak US jobs report that reduced expectations of a faster Fed tightening. ITC was the top gainer, up nearly 5 per cent, after Citi upgraded it from Sell to Buy and raised the target to Rs 300, saying the earnings downgrade cycle after the cigarette tax hike has run its course. Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers. The rupee closed at 96.30 per dollar by PTI's provisional count, five paise lower, while Reuters put it at 96.2925 against 96.3150. The dollar index stood near a 17-month high, and the RBI was believed to be intervening. The Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision on Wednesday.
The market had lost about 3 per cent in four sessions on oil and the rupee, so Monday was a relief rather than a trend. Three things set the next move: the RBI's decision, the price of Brent, and whether foreign investors stop selling. The RBI faces an awkward choice. A hike would defend the rupee and cool inflation, but it would also raise the cost of loans when growth is already slowing.
If you have a floating-rate home loan, a 25-basis-point hike usually raises your EMI or your loan tenure within one or two billing cycles. If you hold mutual funds, a one-day bounce changes little; the gain simply undoes part of last week's fall. Fixed deposit rates may edge up if the RBI hikes.
Oil is easing, US rate fears are fading and ITC's upgrade shows value is returning. A hike on Wednesday, if it comes, will be priced in, and the market can look through it.
Foreign money is still leaving, the rupee is near its record low and Brent is around 00. One good session after four bad ones is not a bottom. The RBI's decision may decide the quarter.
Two numbers: 96.30 and 5.50. The first is where the rupee stands, with the RBI visibly defending it; the second is the repo rate if 35 of 61 economists are right. If the RBI hikes and the rupee still weakens, the lesson will be that rates alone cannot offset a 00 oil price. Watch the Governor's tone on the rupee as much as the number.
Business Standard (Sensex 72,382.47, Nifty 22,556) · Moneycontrol via TradingView (Taking Stock) · BBN Times · Daily Financial · Trading Economics (FPI outflows, ITC) · PTI via HDFC Sky and Daily Excelsior (rupee 96.30) · Reuters via MarketScreener (96.2925; RBI poll) · Business Upturn (Citi target) (all 5 Oct) · Whalesbook counts eight days; others four
Economy · MarketsSource ✓ exchange closing data as reported · Press ✓ 5 outlets
Sensex jumps 473 points and Nifty ends at 22,556, snapping a losing run. The RBI decides on Wednesday
Softer crude and a weak US jobs report eased fears of faster Fed hikes. ITC rose nearly 5 per cent on a Citi upgrade. The rupee barely moved, and foreign investors kept selling.
Indian equities bounced on Monday after four straight sessions of losses. The BSE Sensex gained 472.77 points, or 0.66 per cent, to close at 72,382.47, against 71,909.70 on the previous close. The NSE Nifty 50 rose 133.80 points, or 0.60 per cent, to end at 22,555.75. Over the four losing sessions the Sensex had slipped about 2.7 per cent and the Nifty about 3.1 per cent, according to one market wrap. Outlets cited easing crude prices, buying across sectors and a weaker US jobs report that reduced bets on a faster pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. One outlet described the losing run as eight days long; most counted four sessions, and we have used four.
ITC was the standout. The stock rose nearly 5 per cent after Citi moved it to Buy from Sell and lifted its target price to Rs 300, arguing that the cycle of earnings downgrades after the steep cigarette tax increase is largely over. Outlets differ on the earlier target (Rs 270 or Rs 280). The rupee ended almost flat at 96.30 to the dollar, five paise weaker by PTI's provisional count, with the Reserve Bank of India believed to be smoothing moves. Selling by foreign portfolio investors continued, and falling forex reserves show the RBI's cost of defending the rupee. All eyes now turn to the Monetary Policy Committee, which announces its decision at 10 a.m. on Wednesday. In a Reuters poll of 61 economists taken in late September, 35 expected a 25-basis-point increase in the repo rate to 5.50 per cent, which would be the first rise since February 2023.
Unfold the story and DailyDrop's take
By the numbers
72,382.47Sensex close, up 472.77 points; Nifty 22,555.75 (exchange data as reported)
96.30Rupee per dollar, flat; PTI provisional, Reuters 96.29
35 of 61Economists in a Reuters poll expecting a 25-basis-point repo hike on Wednesday
A petition before the Supreme Court argues that Article 324 vests superintendence of elections in the Election Commission, not in the Chief Election Commissioner alone, and that Section 18 of the 2023 appointments law requires unanimity where possible and a majority otherwise. It cites reports that Election Commissioners Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi recorded objections at least 14 times in about ten months, including on the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. It seeks a writ of quo warranto against CEC Gyanesh Kumar. CJI Surya Kant had asked on 29 September for the matter to be listed the following week; it was on the cause list for Monday. One report says the bench declined an ex-parte order suspending Mr Kumar and sought responses from the Centre, the Commission and the CEC. The Commission denies that the objections show institutional dissent. Congress has held protests in many states, and the BJP says it is spreading falsehoods.
The Election Commission is the umpire of every election, and the dispute is about who inside it holds the whistle. If the court finds that decisions on the roll revision were taken by one person, it would affect the legal footing of an exercise that touches crores of voters. If it finds that majority or unanimity was followed, the political attack loses its main plank.
If you are a voter in a state where the revision is under way, nothing changes for you today; the Commission's notices and deadlines stand. Keep your documents ready regardless.
A three-member body must decide as a body. Recorded objections by two commissioners, if true, are exactly the kind of fact a court should examine.
Disagreement inside a commission is normal, the law allows a majority, and the opposition is using a court case for street politics. The Commission has said the process is lawful.
Watch the court's written order, not the headlines about it. The questions to look for are whether notice was issued, to whom, and by what date replies are due. A short return date would mean the court sees urgency before the next round of roll revision.
Bar & Bench · LiveLaw · Morung Express (PTI) · Telangana Today (listing) · Deccan Chronicle · The Quint (interim order report) · Devdiscourse and Outlook (protests) (Sept 28 – Oct 5) · The outcome of the 5 Oct hearing rests on one report and is not confirmed
Politics · LawPress ✓ 4 outlets · the court's order is not yet read directly
Supreme Court takes up a plea asking whether CEC Gyanesh Kumar can act alone. Congress keeps up its street protests
A bench headed by Chief Justice Surya Kant was listed to hear on Monday a petition that asks a narrow but weighty question: can the Chief Election Commissioner exercise on his own powers that the Constitution gives to the Election Commission as a body? The petition leans on Article 324 and on the 2023 law that says decisions should be unanimous where possible and otherwise by majority. It cites a report in The Indian Express that Election Commissioners Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi recorded objections at least 14 times in ten months on decisions linked to the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. It seeks a writ of quo warranto, which asks an officeholder to show the authority for what he is doing.
One report says the court refused to suspend Mr Kumar without hearing the other side and asked the Centre, the Commission and the CEC to respond; we could not confirm that from a second outlet or from the order itself. The Commission rejects the idea that the objections amount to institutional dissent. Outside court, Congress held protests in several states over the past fortnight, including outside Mr Kumar's house in Agra, where slogans were painted on the gate, and the BJP has accused it of misleading the public.
Unfold
Word of the day
Quo warrantoLawA court writ that asks a person holding a public office, "By what authority?" If he cannot show a legal basis, the court can remove him. The petition against the CEC asks for exactly this.