Sensex jumps 473 points and Nifty ends at 22,556, snapping a losing run. The RBI decides on Wednesday
The BSE Sensex closed at 72,382.47 on Monday, up 472.77 points or 0.66 per cent, ending a four-session losing run. The NSE Nifty 50 rose 133.80 points, or 0.60 per cent, to 22,555.75 from 22,421.95. Outlets attributed the rebound to easing crude prices, buying across sectors, and a weak US jobs report that reduced expectations of a faster Fed tightening. ITC was the top gainer, up nearly 5 per cent, after Citi upgraded it from Sell to Buy and raised the target to Rs 300, saying the earnings downgrade cycle after the cigarette tax hike has run its course. Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers. The rupee closed at 96.30 per dollar by PTI's provisional count, five paise lower, while Reuters put it at 96.2925 against 96.3150. The dollar index stood near a 17-month high, and the RBI was believed to be intervening. The Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision on Wednesday.
The market had lost about 3 per cent in four sessions on oil and the rupee, so Monday was a relief rather than a trend. Three things set the next move: the RBI's decision, the price of Brent, and whether foreign investors stop selling. The RBI faces an awkward choice. A hike would defend the rupee and cool inflation, but it would also raise the cost of loans when growth is already slowing.
If you have a floating-rate home loan, a 25-basis-point hike usually raises your EMI or your loan tenure within one or two billing cycles. If you hold mutual funds, a one-day bounce changes little; the gain simply undoes part of last week's fall. Fixed deposit rates may edge up if the RBI hikes.
Oil is easing, US rate fears are fading and ITC's upgrade shows value is returning. A hike on Wednesday, if it comes, will be priced in, and the market can look through it.
Foreign money is still leaving, the rupee is near its record low and Brent is around $100. One good session after four bad ones is not a bottom. The RBI's decision may decide the quarter.
Two numbers: 96.30 and 5.50. The first is where the rupee stands, with the RBI visibly defending it; the second is the repo rate if 35 of 61 economists are right. If the RBI hikes and the rupee still weakens, the lesson will be that rates alone cannot offset a $100 oil price. Watch the Governor's tone on the rupee as much as the number.
DailyDrop India edition No. 1 · Morning · MON., OCT. 5, 2026