Labour sets out its fiscal plan, promising a surplus by 2028/29 as National claims an $8.5b hole
Labour released its fiscal plan on Sunday 4 October (1News, ODT, RNZ, Newstalk ZB, Stuff). It targets an operating surplus in 2028/29 and includes about $2.5 billion over four years for an interim $4-an-hour rise for 65,000 care and support workers. Hipkins said that is about half of the $8 an hour unions wanted. National says restoring the old pay equity regime would cost $11 billion on a Treasury estimate, leaving an $8.5 billion gap. Labour says it has $10.5 billion unallocated and is not naming a figure so as not to undermine talks.
With polls close, spending credibility is a central election argument. Pay equity involves large sums and affects thousands of mostly female workers.
If you work in aged care or disability support, the interim rise would apply to you. For everyone else the question is what is squeezed to pay for it.
Labour says every promise is fully costed and paid for, and a headline cost would weaken its hand in negotiations.
National says leaving the biggest item uncosted makes the plan unreliable and could crowd out schools, police and defence.
The $8.5b figure is one side's arithmetic, not an audit. Watch for the Treasury's pre-election update and for any independent costing of the pay equity promise.
DailyDrop New Zealand edition No. 1 · Morning · MON., OCT. 5, 2026