Peters and Seymour both say Opportunity will not make it into Parliament, as the campaign enters its third week
Winston Peters and David Seymour each said they do not expect the Opportunity Party to win seats, although most polls show it above the 5% threshold (Stuff, 1News live coverage). RNZ’s live coverage opened the campaign’s third week with Peters, whose party is in government with National and ACT, saying his half-century in politics is “not a matter of enjoyment”, and RNZ’s analysis said he believes neither Labour’s Chris Hipkins nor National’s Christopher Luxon will be calling the shots after the election. Seymour outlined ACT’s fiscal plan on Sunday (New Zealand Herald). RNZ’s explainer lists 17 parties competing for seats.
Opportunity sits near the 5% line, and whether it crosses decides whether the next government needs its votes. Two coalition partners talking it down is also a campaign tactic: it asks their supporters not to treat the party as safe.
You have two votes: one for a local MP and one for a party. The party vote decides the shape of Parliament, so a party near 5% is worth a look at the polls before you decide whether to back it.
Peters and Seymour argue Opportunity is a vote-splitter that will fall short on the day.
Opportunity’s supporters point to polls that have it above 5%, which would give it seats whatever the incumbents say.
Dismissal is a message to your own voters, not a forecast. The number to track is how the polls move now that the two partners are saying this out loud.
DailyDrop New Zealand edition No. 9 · Morning · TUE., OCT. 13, 2026