New poll has National and Labour level, with Opportunity still holding the balance of power
A new 1News-Verian poll found National and Labour tied (NZ Herald), and 1News’s headline said Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are now neck and neck. RNZ’s headline said Opportunity is still in the kingmaker seat, and 1News said the party is on track for 10 MPs. Stuff put its support at 8% and reported Luxon again dismissing it. The Herald reported that Opportunity’s Qiulae Wong and the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick clashed at the leaders’ debate, and the Waikato Times reported Wong saying she would call the party with the most seats first, even if it won fewer votes. Labour released its economic plan; the Herald says it draws up to $50m from the Super Fund for an Elevate fund, while RNZ describes up to $50m a year for a venture capital fund. DailyDrop has not confirmed the party-vote percentages for National and Labour.
If the two big parties are level, a party near 8% can decide which of them governs. That gives Opportunity influence out of proportion to its size.
You have two votes, one for a local MP and one for a party. The party vote sets the balance in Parliament, so a polling result like this is a reason to check what each party would do in a deal.
The poll’s message to one side of politics: the contest is open and no party can count on a clear win.
The sceptical view, voiced by Luxon, is that Opportunity has not shown what it stands for and its numbers may not hold.
One poll is a snapshot. Look for the same pattern in the next one, and for Wong’s answer on which side she would back.
DailyDrop New Zealand edition No. 11 · Morning · THU., OCT. 15, 2026