Week of October 5 to 9: September inflation 7.2% (PSA); PSEi 5,629.03 to 5,700.99 (+1.28% by DailyDrop's calculation), with a low of 5,610.39 on October 8; peso 62.535 to 62.801 (about 0.4% weaker) with a record-low close of 62.90 on October 8. Analysts expect another BSP hike on October 22 (BMI 25 bps to 5.25%; BPI hikes in October and December; UOB three hikes). On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose to 7,811.54 from 7,722.72, WTI to $91.85 from $91.11 and gold to $4,216.3 from $4,162.3. The 10-year U.S. yield touched about 5.36% on October 7, the highest since 2002 (AP, Reuters via The Star).
A weak peso, 7 percent inflation and expected rate hikes are all linked: imported fuel and food lift prices, a weak peso raises import costs, and the central bank answers with higher rates, which slow growth.
Expect another quarter-point rise in loan rates in late October. Variable-rate borrowers should plan for higher payments, and shoppers should expect imported goods to stay costly.
Hikes and a focus on supply could pull inflation down from a likely fourth-quarter peak, and stocks have found buyers near 5,600.
Growth is slowing, oil is above $90 and the peso is at record lows, so the central bank may be forced to tighten into weakness.
Three dates frame the next fortnight: Monday's fuel announcement, the October 22 BSP decision, and any move in the peso beyond ₱63. If inflation peaks in the fourth quarter as the governor expects, October's hike may be the last of the cycle; if it does not, it will not be.
GMA News, BusinessWorld, Daily Tribune, Philstar, Inquirer, Trading Economics, OneNews, The Star (AP/Reuters) (Oct 2-10, 2026)
The week in numbers: inflation at 7.2 percent, a record-low peso and a PSEi that ended at 5,700.99; a rate hike is the base case for October 22
Stocks finished the week 1.3 percent higher despite a dip to an 11-month low, while the peso ended 0.4 percent weaker. Local markets are closed until Monday.
Philippine inflation jumped to 7.2 percent in September from 6.1 percent, the fastest since March 2023 and above the 6.7 percent median forecast, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported on Tuesday, October 6 (GMA News, BusinessWorld, Trading Economics). Economists now expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to raise its policy rate, currently 5 percent, at its October 22 meeting: BMI sees 25 basis points, BPI sees one hike in October and another in December, and UOB sees three in a row (BusinessWorld, Daily Tribune). Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said President Marcos told agencies to prioritise food, fuel and electricity supply (OneNews, Philstar).
The PSEi closed the week at 5,700.99 after Friday's 1.61 percent rebound, up 1.28 percent from 5,629.03 a week earlier by DailyDrop's calculation, but only after sliding to 5,610.39 on Thursday, an 11-month low (Philstar, Daily Tribune, Inquirer). The peso closed at ₱62.801, from ₱62.535, about 0.4 percent weaker, after touching a record-low close of ₱62.90 on Thursday. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 ended Friday at 7,811.54 against 7,722.72 a week earlier, WTI crude at $91.85 against $91.11 and gold at $4,216.3 against $4,162.3.
Fuel is a mixed picture: gasoline rose ₱1.93 a litre and diesel fell ₱1.30 this week, and industry estimates point to diesel down about ₱2 and gasoline up about ₱2.20 from Tuesday, October 13, before the Department of Energy confirms on Monday (GMA News, Manila Bulletin, Philstar). Growth was just 2.3 percent in the second quarter, so higher rates would hit an economy that is already slow.