PAGASA says El Niño is expected to strengthen into December, raising dry-spell risk for early 2027
PAGASA reported El Niño conditions since June 2026, with models indicating it will intensify, possibly to very strong by October-December, and persist into early 2027 (PAGASA advisories, GMA News, DZRH, Daily Tribune). A dry spell is 21-60% below-average rain for three consecutive months. This weekend: scattered rain from the ITCZ and an LPA; Typhoon Koguma outside the PAR (Manila Times, GMA News).
Dry weather hits rice, vegetables and hydropower, and food prices are already driving 7.2 percent inflation.
Expect warnings on water and power use later in the year. Watch food prices in the coming months.
Early warnings give farmers and local governments time to prepare irrigation and supplies.
Forecasts can shift, and the damage depends on rainfall in specific places, not on the El Niño label.
Inflation watchers should add El Niño to the list of risks for rice and vegetables in 2027. Ask your local government for water and crop plans now.
DailyDrop Philippines edition No. 7 · Morning · SUN., OCT. 11, 2026