The week in numbers: inflation at 7.2 percent, a record-low peso and a PSEi that ended at 5,700.99; a rate hike is the base case for October 22
Week of October 5 to 9: September inflation 7.2% (PSA); PSEi 5,629.03 to 5,700.99 (+1.28% by DailyDrop's calculation), with a low of 5,610.39 on October 8; peso 62.535 to 62.801 (about 0.4% weaker) with a record-low close of 62.90 on October 8. Analysts expect another BSP hike on October 22 (BMI 25 bps to 5.25%; BPI hikes in October and December; UOB three hikes). On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose to 7,811.54 from 7,722.72, WTI to $91.85 from $91.11 and gold to $4,216.3 from $4,162.3. The 10-year U.S. yield touched about 5.36% on October 7, the highest since 2002 (AP, Reuters via The Star).
A weak peso, 7 percent inflation and expected rate hikes are all linked: imported fuel and food lift prices, a weak peso raises import costs, and the central bank answers with higher rates, which slow growth.
Expect another quarter-point rise in loan rates in late October. Variable-rate borrowers should plan for higher payments, and shoppers should expect imported goods to stay costly.
Hikes and a focus on supply could pull inflation down from a likely fourth-quarter peak, and stocks have found buyers near 5,600.
Growth is slowing, oil is above $90 and the peso is at record lows, so the central bank may be forced to tighten into weakness.
Three dates frame the next fortnight: Monday's fuel announcement, the October 22 BSP decision, and any move in the peso beyond ₱63. If inflation peaks in the fourth quarter as the governor expects, October's hike may be the last of the cycle; if it does not, it will not be.
DailyDrop Philippines edition No. 7 · Morning · SUN., OCT. 11, 2026