The National Day gala was held on the 9th in Banqiao, New Taipei. In his address, President Lai asked Han Kuo-yu and lawmakers of all parties to support the general budget and the supplementary budget, and Cho Jung-tai and Han Kuo-yu shook hands in the audience (CNA, Liberty Times, FTV). King Mswati III of Eswatini is visiting Taiwan from the 9th to the 17th, his 20th visit; President Lai welcomed him with a military ceremony and a state banquet, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the king will witness the signing of a Taiwan-Eswatini mutual legal assistance in criminal matters agreement (CNA, Liberty Times). Lin Chia-lung said that on President Lai's May trip to Eswatini he flew on a special aircraft sent by the king. On the morning of the 9th, four China Coast Guard ships, in two groups, entered Kinmen restricted waters; Taiwan coast guard cutters shadowed and warned them off one-on-one, and the ships left about two hours later (CNA, Liberty Times, FTV). The Liberty Times also reported that Chinese military aircraft approached the southwestern airspace; no second outlet has confirmed this so far.
The general budget is the precondition for what the government can do over the whole coming year. By naming the Legislative Yuan speaker in public at the National Day gala, President Lai signals that the Executive Yuan wants to bring the ruling-opposition deadlock into the open. A visit by a head of state from a diplomatic ally during National Day is one of the few occasions on which Taiwan can display its official relations to the world. Gray-zone actions, meanwhile, change what counts as normal in the waters bit by bit, without triggering military conflict.
If the budget is delayed, what is affected is the timing of subsidies, public works and arms purchases; for ordinary people, wage, child-care and long-term-care policies can only take effect once the budget passes. Readers heading out over the holiday should note the traffic controls around the Presidential Office from the 10th to the 12th, and local rain on windward slopes. Residents of Kinmen and the outlying islands, and fishermen, may encounter China Coast Guard ships more often.
Both camps sent signals of goodwill on the eve of National Day, so the budget may clear review in the first half of the next session; the Coast Guard Administration's real-time disclosure of its response also shows transparency in law enforcement.
Appeals on stage and handshakes below it do not change the Legislative Yuan's seat counts or procedures; coast guard ships appear around National Day every time, precisely to test Taiwan's reaction, and a single expulsion treats only the symptom.
Three things to watch today: whether President Lai's National Day address covers the budget and cross-strait relations, and whether the text released by the Presidential Office matches the pre-event previews; whether the Taiwan-Eswatini mutual legal assistance agreement is signed and its contents published; and what follow-up reports the Coast Guard Administration and the Defense Ministry issue over the holiday. If activity by Chinese coast guard ships or military aircraft keeps rising during the holiday, the government should publish fuller counts and flight tracks.
CNA · Liberty Times · FTV · Mirror Media · Coast Guard Administration press release · Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement (Oct. 9)
National Day gala moves to New Taipei for the first time, President Lai urges parties to review the general budget quickly; 4 China Coast Guard ships enter Kinmen restricted waters for about 2 hours
King Mswati III of Eswatini is visiting Taiwan for the 20th time, and the National Day ceremony takes place today (10/10) in front of the Presidential Office. The budget appeal at the gala and the standoff at sea are the two main threads on the eve of National Day.
The National Day gala was held on the evening of the 9th at Banqiao First Stadium in New Taipei City, the first time New Taipei has hosted it. In his address, President Lai Ching-te singled out Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu and lawmakers of all parties, asking them to support the central government's general budget and supplementary budget and to finish reviewing them as soon as possible; CNA, the Liberty Times and FTV all reported the remarks. President Lai said the general budget is the key to whether policy can move forward, and noted that last year's budget review saw major delays. In the audience, Premier Cho Jung-tai took the initiative to shake hands with Han Kuo-yu, who shook back, and the mood in the hall was relaxed; but the budget's path through the Legislative Yuan has not changed as a result, and one handshake does not equal consensus between the ruling and opposition camps. President Lai's speech also mentioned wage growth and easing the burden on families for child care and long-term care. Separately, CNA previewed before the gala that President Lai's National Day address today will focus on three themes: economic achievements, people's livelihoods and contributions to the world. That is pre-event reporting; what the address actually says must wait for the Presidential Office's release.
On the diplomatic front, King Mswati III of Eswatini began a visit to Taiwan with a delegation on the 9th, running through the 17th, his 20th visit since he took the throne in 1986. President Lai welcomed him with a military ceremony that day and hosted a state banquet at the Presidential Office (CNA, Liberty Times). Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said that when President Lai visited Eswatini in May, he flew both ways on a special aircraft sent by the king, which he described as tangible support for Taiwan's breakthrough of its diplomatic isolation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the king will also attend the National Day ceremony and reception, and witness the signing of a Taiwan-Eswatini mutual legal assistance in criminal matters agreement. That agreement has not yet been signed, and its provisions must wait for the ministry's release. Eswatini is one of Taiwan's diplomatic allies, and each visit by the king helps raise Taiwan's international visibility.
On the eve of National Day, the sea was also restless. The Coast Guard Administration's Kinmen-Matsu-Penghu Branch said that at about 9:10 a.m. on the 9th, four China Coast Guard ships, in two groups, entered Kinmen's restricted waters from the east and southwest of Liaoluo. Taiwan coast guard cutters shadowed them one-on-one at close range and broadcast warnings in Chinese and English; at 11:13 a.m. all four ships had left, about two hours in all (reported by CNA, the Liberty Times, FTV, Mirror Media and others, with details from the Coast Guard Administration press release). The Coast Guard Administration noted that the National Day period is one when China is more likely to carry out gray-zone harassment and cognitive warfare, so it keeps round-the-clock surveillance. The Liberty Times separately reported, as an exclusive, that Chinese military aircraft approached Taiwan's southwestern airspace and the armed forces drove them off by radio; only that paper has reported it, so we list it as unverified. Seen together: the domestic focus is whether the budget clears the Legislative Yuan, and the external focus is diplomatic allies and defense security. DailyDrop reminds readers that a National Day speech is often read as a triple signal to Beijing, to the United States and to the home audience, but whether those signals exist depends on the words of the text, not on pre-event speculation. Readers heading out today should also note that roads around the Presidential Office have staged traffic controls from the 10th to the 12th, and weather reports point to local rain in the north and on windward slopes in the east.