By the 18th, Typhoon Jangmi was being called a severe typhoon in reports by the United Daily News, China Times, ETtoday, Liberty Times and SET News. The Liberty Times and SET News, citing forecasters, said Jangmi is expected to reach its first intensity peak on the 19th. The United Daily News, China Times and ETtoday reported that the Weather Administration said a sea typhoon warning could be issued as early as the evening of the 21st, and possibly earlier if it moves faster. Focus Taiwan, citing Weather Administration forecasters, said Jangmi is expected to lie in the sea east of Taiwan around the 22nd and may then gradually turn north, but if the Pacific High stays strong, the track will shift west and could cross Taiwan. The United Daily News reported that rain is expected islandwide on the 23rd and 24th (Friday and Saturday), with locally heavy to torrential rain in the north, Yilan and Hualien. As of reports on the 18th, the Weather Administration had not issued a warning.
If a sea warning is issued on the evening of the 21st, fishing boats, outlying-island shipping and activity along the east coast will be affected first, while a land warning and any decision to suspend work and classes will wait until the track is clearer. The track depends on the strength of the Pacific High: when the high weakens, the typhoon turns north earlier; when it strengthens, the typhoon comes closer to Taiwan, and the area hit by wind and rain after the 22nd differs greatly between the two cases. How the intensity changes after its peak on the 19th will also affect the strength of the wind and rain when it nears Taiwan.
For the next few days, check the Weather Administration's forecast as it is updated each day, and leave room to reschedule any trips, flights or train rides on the 23rd and 24th. If you plan to go out to sea, take an outlying-island flight or be active in the east or north, watch for a sea warning from the evening of the 21st. Check drains, balconies and where your vehicle is parked at home before the wind and rain arrive.
Reports quoting Weather Administration forecasters say that if the Pacific High weakens markedly around the 22nd, the typhoon will begin turning north in the sea east of Taiwan, Taiwan will be affected mainly by the outer circulation, and rain will concentrate in the north and east. This camp treats the change in the high around the 22nd as the key to whether it turns north.
Other reports quote weather experts who say the chance of a northward turn is low, that Jangmi will approach Taiwan as a severe typhoon and that forecasts are gradually leaning toward landfall; if the high stays strong and the track shifts west, Taiwan will be closer to the typhoon's center. This camp thinks a westward track is more likely than a northward turn.
Confirmed: the intensity is forecast to peak on the 19th, a sea warning could come as early as the evening of the 21st, and the 23rd and 24th are the period of most noticeable impact. Not confirmed: whether it turns north or moves west after the 22nd. From today through the 21st, watch how the Pacific High changes, whether the forecasts converge, and whether a sea warning is issued on the evening of the 21st.
United Daily News, China Times, ETtoday, Liberty Times, SET News, CNA (Focus Taiwan), Philstar, Vietnamese media, Oct. 16–18
Severe Typhoon Jangmi forecast to peak in intensity today; Central Weather Administration says a sea warning could come as early as Wednesday night
Multiple outlets report that severe Typhoon Jangmi is forecast to peak in intensity on the 19th; the Weather Administration says a sea typhoon warning could be issued as early as the evening of the 21st, and after the 22nd both a northward and a westward track remain possible.
By the 18th, Typhoon Jangmi (薔琵) was being called a severe typhoon in reports by the United Daily News, China Times, ETtoday, Liberty Times and SET News. CNA reported on the 16th that the Weather Administration then described Jangmi as still a tropical storm, expected to strengthen into a typhoon within 24 hours, with its later track still uncertain; at that time Jangmi was in the sea east of Guam. Focus Taiwan (CNA's English service) reported on the 17th that Jangmi that day lay about 2,980 kilometers east-southeast of Taiwan's southern tip, moving west at 22 kilometers per hour, and that the Weather Administration said Jangmi could approach or cross Taiwan next week. The Liberty Times and SET News, citing forecasters, said Jangmi is expected to reach its first intensity peak on the 19th (today); SET News reported the forecast under the headline “High odds of striking Taiwan.” The United Daily News, China Times and ETtoday reported that the Weather Administration said a sea typhoon warning could be issued as early as the evening of the 21st (Wednesday), and possibly earlier if the typhoon speeds up; ETtoday had already reported this explanation on the 17th under the headline “Typhoon Jangmi speeds up,” while the China Times also reported the rain hot spots published by the Weather Administration; the Taipei Times, the Liberty Times' English edition, carried the same account on the 19th. The United Daily News also reported that the most noticeable impact would come on Friday and Saturday, the 23rd and 24th, when rain is expected islandwide, with locally heavy to torrential rain in the north, Yilan and Hualien.
The track is where the reports diverge most. Focus Taiwan, citing Weather Administration forecasters, said Jangmi is expected to reach the sea south of the Ryukyus around the 21st and lie in the sea east of Taiwan around the 22nd (Thursday), after which it may gradually turn north. The Weather Administration explained that the track depends on the Pacific High: if the high weakens markedly, the typhoon will turn north earlier; if it strengthens, the typhoon will turn closer to Taiwan and may even cross it. The Liberty Times reported two possibilities for now: turning north from the sea off the east coast, or passing west across Taiwan and possibly making landfall. Two other reports separately quoted weather experts, one saying the chance of a northward turn is low, the other saying forecasts are gradually leaning toward landfall. CNA also reported that over the weekend of the 24th and 25th, the northeast monsoon or the typhoon's outer circulation could bring more rain to the north and east. The Philippines' Philstar and Vietnamese media reported that Jangmi reached super typhoon strength when it entered the Philippine area of responsibility and is expected to weaken gradually afterward. As of reports on the 18th, the Weather Administration had not issued a sea or land typhoon warning.