¥69,030.92Nikkei 225 · Oct. 9 close · −0.02% from the previous day (no trading on the 12th for Sports Day; reopens on the 13th)

DailyDrop.

¥158.25Dollar-yen · Oct. 9, evening · up ¥0.45 from the previous day, toward a weaker yen

Nikkei 22569,030.92▼0.02%10/9TOPIX—USD/JPY158.25▲0.45 JPY10/9S&P 5007,811.54▲0.59%10/9WTI$91.85▲0.39%10/9Gold$4,216.30▲1.43%10/9

On Saturday, Oct. 10, Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority announced that King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh had been attacked, leaving 12 dead and 309 injured (AP, Reuters). The Mainichi Shimbun reported that Americans were among the dead. AP and the Asahi Shimbun reported that the attack is suspected to be the work of the Houthis, an Iran-backed armed group in Yemen. According to Reuters, the Houthis have again issued a warning concerning Saudi airports. Saudi Arabia extended the airport's closure (AP). The same airport was also attacked last week, killing three Saudi nationals (Al Jazeera). U.S. Secretary of State Rubio condemned the attack and said the United States stands on Saudi Arabia's side. The Asahi Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun reported that President Trump said he would “consider” joining a counterstrike.

The attack hit a civilian facility, with more than 300 casualties. If attacks continue, Saudi Arabia's air gateway could be shut down, hitting aviation and logistics in the Gulf. If the United States joins a counterstrike, the confrontation with Iran could spread into a regional war. The supply of crude oil and the safety of shipping lanes bear directly on prices around the world.

Japan relies on the Middle East for most of its crude oil. Retail prices of gasoline and kerosene reflect crude prices with a lag, so they will not move right away, but depending on the market from Monday on, they could be affected in a few weeks. If you plan a business trip or travel to the Middle East, check the Foreign Ministry's overseas safety information and airlines' operating information.

Since many civilians were killed or injured, action to defend ally Saudi Arabia is necessary. Showing readiness to counterstrike will deter the next attack.

Joining a counterstrike would draw the United States deeper into the war. Military action before the perpetrator is confirmed carries a large risk of miscalculation and escalation.

Today's number is “309 people.” It shows the scale of the attack, yet the perpetrator and the means are still not confirmed. There are three things to watch: whether Trump moves from “consider” to a decision, whether the Houthis give notice of their next airport attack, and how oil reacts at the start of the week. The Tokyo market is closed, so Japanese investors will be watching overseas moves until it reopens on the 13th.

AP · Reuters · NPR · The Guardian · Asahi Shimbun · Mainichi Shimbun · Jiji Press · Al Jazeera (Oct. 9–11. Casualty figures from AP and Reuters, American deaths from the Mainichi Shimbun, consideration of a counterstrike from the Asahi Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun)

World · Middle EastPress ✓ 6 outlets · casualty figures are the Saudi civil aviation authority's announcement; the perpetrator is unconfirmed

Attack on Riyadh Airport Kills 12, Injures Over 300; Houthi Role Suspected, Trump Says He Will “Consider” Joining Retaliation

Americans are reported among the dead, and the United States reacted strongly. The focus is the oil market at the start of the week and the spillover to fuel prices in Japan.

On the 10th, Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority announced that King Khalid International Airport in the capital, Riyadh, had been attacked, leaving 12 dead and 309 injured (AP, Reuters). The Mainichi Shimbun reported that Americans were among the dead. AP and the Asahi Shimbun said the attack is suspected to be the work of the Houthis, an Iran-backed armed group in Yemen, and the Houthis have again issued a warning over Saudi airports (Reuters). The same airport was targeted by ballistic missiles last week as well, killing three Saudi nationals (Al Jazeera). The Houthis also claimed a new attack on the 8th, and the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted two ballistic missiles (AP). This time the damage was on a far larger scale, and the airport's closure was extended (AP). King Khalid International Airport is one of Saudi Arabia's main airports, handling domestic and international passengers and cargo. Houthi-affiliated television reported that Sanaa airport, in Houthi-held territory, was also attacked (Reuters). However, who carried out the attack and the details of the means used have not yet been confirmed.

The U.S. reaction was swift. Secretary of State Rubio condemned the attack and said the United States stands with Saudi Arabia (Reuters and others, 4 outlets). The Asahi Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun reported that President Trump said he would “consider” joining a counterstrike (NPR likewise); no decision has been made on whether to take part, and the Saudi-led coalition vowed retaliation (The Guardian). Behind this lies the confrontation between the United States and Iran. Reuters reported that the U.S. military disabled a cargo ship that tried to break Iran's maritime blockade. The war in the Middle East is also expected to be the biggest topic at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (Reuters). The market impact shows up first in oil. WTI crude closed on the 9th at $91.85 (+0.39%), the S&P 500 at 7,811.54 (+0.59%) and gold at $4,216.3 (+1.43%), but all of these are levels from before the attack. The Tokyo market is closed on the 12th for Sports Day and reopens on the 13th. Japan imports most of its crude oil from the Middle East, so the focus is how this will affect supply and shipping. The breakdown of the dead by nationality, whether any Japanese were harmed, and the Japanese government's response have not yet been confirmed.

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By the numbers

12 deadDeaths. 309 injured (Saudi civil aviation authority, AP)

$91.85WTI crude's Friday (9th) close. A level from before the attack, up 0.39% from the previous day

Oct. 13Day the Tokyo market reopens. Closed on the 12th for Sports Day

On Oct. 10, the Bureau of the Assembly of States Parties of the ICC issued a statement, in the names of 21 countries including Japan, calling for the immediate withdrawal of the U.S. sanctions (Jiji Press, Mainichi Shimbun, NHK). The United States has designated the ICC itself as a sanctions target, and President Tomoko Akane said in a statement that she “firmly rejects” them (Mainichi Shimbun). Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi consulted with Secretary of State Rubio by phone, and Mr. Rubio conveyed the “necessity” of the sanctions. Mr. Motegi also spoke by phone with President Akane (NHK, Asahi Shimbun, Mainichi Shimbun). Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said he is “deeply concerned” (Jiji Press). Nobel Peace Prize laureate Pillay criticized the sanctions as “unprecedented and unacceptable” (Mainichi Shimbun). The Japan Times reported that Prime Minister Takaichi is once again caught in the middle.

The ICC's president is Japanese, and Japan is also one of the court's largest financial supporters. At the same time, Japan relies on the United States for its security, and many U.S. troops are stationed on its soil. Reconciling the stance of defending the court with its relationship with its ally is testing Japanese diplomacy.

There is no direct effect on daily life. But if the ICC's operations stall, investigating war crimes becomes harder. How Japan reconciles support for international law with its relationship with the United States will also connect to future debates on diplomacy and defense.

To protect the rule of law, even allies should be opposed. The 21 countries' statement has meaning as a show of solidarity by major democracies.

The United States argues that the ICC acts politically. There is also concern that if Japan, which relies on the United States for security, keeps up strong opposition, it could affect relations in other areas.

Today's number is “21 countries.” That Japan put its name to it is no small matter. The things to watch are the concrete scope and grace period of the sanctions, how the ICC will continue bank transactions and salaries, and whether Japan, after the statement, shows action in the form of funding or legal backing. Whether this ends in words or leads to support will decide the weight of this opposition.

Jiji Press · Mainichi Shimbun · NHK · Asahi Shimbun · The Japan Times (Oct. 10–11. Statement from Jiji Press, the Mainichi Shimbun and NHK, the foreign minister's calls from NHK, the Asahi Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun)

World · International LawPress ✓ 6 outlets · scope and grace period of sanctions not checked against U.S. government documents

ICC Sanctions: Assembly Bureau Speaking for 21 Countries Including Japan Demands “Immediate Withdrawal”; Foreign Minister Motegi Phones Rubio and President Akane

On the 10th, the Bureau of the Assembly of States Parties of the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a statement, in the names of 21 countries including Japan, calling for the immediate withdrawal of the U.S. sanctions (Jiji Press, Mainichi Shimbun, NHK). The statement argued that the sanctions obstruct the work of the judiciary. The United States has designated the ICC itself as a sanctions target, and ICC President Tomoko Akane issued a statement saying she “firmly rejects” them (Mainichi Shimbun). Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi consulted with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio by phone and also spoke with President Akane. Mr. Rubio conveyed the “necessity” of the sanctions (NHK, The Japan Times). Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said he is “deeply concerned” and stressed the rule of law (Jiji Press). Nobel Peace Prize laureate Pillay criticized the sanctions as “unprecedented and unacceptable” (Mainichi Shimbun). The ICC is a permanent international court that tries individuals for war crimes and the like, and it is located in The Hague, the Netherlands. The Mainichi Shimbun points out that whether to dismantle the ICC has become a security “loyalty test” tied to the U.S. military. The Japan Times reported that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is once again caught in the middle. Japan hosts U.S. forces at home, and the concrete scope and grace period of the sanctions have not been confirmed in U.S. government documents.

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Word of the day

BureauINTERNATIONAL LAW

The representatives who run a meeting of a treaty's member states. In the ICC's case, they are the president and vice presidents of the Assembly of States Parties, who can issue a statement as the voice of all member states.

Inside

Agriculture Minister Kazuo Yana is said to have stated in May, at a social gathering of a party branch in Tochigi Prefecture, that he had “drastically cut road budgets” for cities and towns whose heads had supported a rival candidate in the lower house election (Hokkaido Shimbun, Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun). Mr. Yana retracted the remark and apologized on the 5th, but denies he will resign. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said, “I want him to straighten himself up and fulfill his duties,” and denied dismissal. Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba criticized the remark, saying “he has no awareness of being a representative of all the people” and “it is dubious for someone engaged in politics” (NHK, Asahi Shimbun), and the governor of Kyoto Prefecture also expressed doubt about the fairness of budget allocation (Mainichi Shimbun). Jiji Press reported that some inside the Liberal Democratic Party say resignation is unavoidable, and that his fate will be the focus of the Budget Committee at the start of the week.

If budget allocation is seen as having been used for political retaliation, trust in the fairness of administration is at stake. The prime minister's responsibility for the appointment will also be questioned.

Road and disaster-prevention budgets bear directly on local life. We want to see the explanation in the Diet's Budget Committee and whether the process of deciding the budget is made clear.

The remark ended with a retraction and an apology. The prime minister's judgment that he should answer with work is one way to look at it.

The suspicion that budget allocation was tied to an election rivalry is serious. Until the explanation is complete, the debate over his fate will not end.

Today's number is “a month and a half.” Some point out that the budget allocation had been decided before the remark, so the facts will be the focus. What to watch: Mr. Yana's explanation in the Budget Committee, how the opposition's censure motion is handled, and whether the prime minister's response changes.

Hokkaido Shimbun · Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun · NHK · Asahi Shimbun · Mainichi Shimbun · Jiji Press (Oct. 5–11. Remark and retraction from the Hokkaido Shimbun and the Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun, Mr. Ishiba's criticism from NHK and the Asahi Shimbun)

Agriculture Minister Yana's “Road Budget” RemarkFormer Prime Minister Ishiba criticized it, and the prime minister ruled out dismissing him. His fate is the focus at the Budget Committee at the start of the week.Domestic Politics · ✓ 5 outlets

Debris Flow in Nepal, 5 People MissingA lake formed when debris dammed a river is thought to have burst. The army is carrying out rescue.World · Disaster · ✓ 4 outlets

Thousands Detained in IndiaDemonstrations criticizing the election commission, with the capital sealed off. The founder of the “Cockroach People's Party” was released.World · ✓ 5 outlets

Pope to Undergo Lung Surgery This WeekHe said himself that he will have surgery for a small tumor. Details of his condition could not be confirmed.World · ✓ 2 outlets

Kitakyushu Holds Off on Starting Data Center ConstructionThere was opposition to the site next to an elementary school. The power burden of AI investment is also becoming an issue in many places.Society · Industry · ✓ 2 outlets

SportsPress ✓ 7 outlets · schedule and opponent of the Final Stage are based on the NPB schedule

DeNA Sweeps Giants in Two Games to Reach CS Final Stage; Shohei Ohtani Faces League Championship Series From the 12th, Munetaka Murakami's White Sox Eliminated

In the Central League's Climax Series (CS) of Japanese pro baseball, Yokohama DeNA beat the Yomiuri Giants in two straight games and advanced to the Final Stage (NHK, Mainichi Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun). The play of veteran Yasutaka Tobashira stood out (Mainichi Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun). According to the NPB schedule, the Final is set to be played against Hanshin at Koshien on the 14th. Giants acting manager Hideki Hashigami held a “final meeting” after the game, and a turbulent season came to an end (Sports Hochi). In the Pacific League, Nippon-Ham beat Seibu to level the series at one win apiece, and the decision was carried over to Game 3 on the 12th (NHK, Mainichi Shimbun).

In Major League Baseball, the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani worked out in batting practice ahead of Game 1 of the National League Championship Series (Jiji Press, NHK). The opponent is the Brewers, and the series starts on the 12th (Sports Hochi). Meanwhile, the White Sox lost to the Guardians in the Division Series and were eliminated, and Munetaka Murakami struck out in all four at-bats in the final game (NHK, Jiji Press).

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A 39-year-old woman was found dead in a hotel in Naha, Okinawa Prefecture, and a 20-year-old U.S. Marine was arrested on suspicion of robbery-murder (Asahi Shimbun) (Al Jazeera). The Okinawa Prefectural Assembly passed a resolution of protest to the U.S. side on the 9th (NHK, Jiji Press). The soldier denies the charges. The Foreign Ministry summoned U.S. Ambassador to Japan Glass to convey concern, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the case “extremely heinous” and asked the U.S. military to tighten discipline and cooperate fully with the investigation. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi conveyed “regret” to the U.S. side by the 11th (Mainichi Shimbun). The U.S. military began joint Japan-U.S. patrols, but voices doubting their effectiveness are heard in the Koza district of Okinawa City (Mainichi Shimbun). The Japan Times conveys residents' anxiety and anger.

Okinawa hosts many of the facilities for the exclusive use of U.S. forces in Japan, and incidents involving U.S. soldiers have repeated. There is persistent demand for a review of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement, which is said to tie Japan's hands in investigations and the handling of custody. Whether pledges to prevent recurrence have been kept is being asked again.

For people living in Okinawa and for tourists, going out at night and safety near bases are concerns. Check announcements from the prefecture and police.

The presence of U.S. forces is indispensable to the stability of the Japan-U.S. alliance. Working to prevent recurrence through joint patrols and the like is the realistic course.

The incidents keep repeating, and small measures are not enough. A review of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement and a lightening of the base burden are needed.

Today's number is “80.” Arrests of U.S. military personnel in 2024 were the most in 20 years. What to watch: the prosecutors' decision on indictment, whether the Japan-U.S. measures to prevent recurrence are effective, and whether Okinawa Prefecture formally requests a review of the Status of Forces Agreement.

Mainichi Shimbun · Asahi Shimbun · NHK · Jiji Press · The Japan Times · Al Jazeera (Oct. 5–11. The foreign minister's message and joint patrols from the Mainichi Shimbun, the prefectural assembly resolution from NHK and Jiji Press, outline of the case from Al Jazeera and the Asahi Shimbun)

Society · SecurityPress ✓ 6 outlets · the decision on indictment and the wishes of the victim's family are unconfirmed

Murder Case Involving U.S. Soldier in Okinawa: Foreign Minister Motegi Conveys “Regret” to U.S. Side; U.S. Military Begins Joint Patrols, Local Voices Doubt “Effectiveness”

In the case in which a woman died at a hotel in Naha, Okinawa Prefecture, and a 20-year-old U.S. Marine was arrested on suspicion of robbery-murder, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi conveyed “regret” to the U.S. side by the 11th (Mainichi Shimbun). The Foreign Ministry summoned U.S. Ambassador to Japan George Glass to express concern, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the case “extremely heinous” and asked the U.S. military to tighten discipline and cooperate fully with the investigation (Al Jazeera). The soldier denies the charges, and prosecutors have yet to decide whether to indict.

The U.S. military has started joint Japan-U.S. patrols around its bases. However, in the Koza district of Okinawa City, doubts about their effectiveness have been voiced (Mainichi Shimbun). The Mainichi Shimbun wrote that, with efforts to prevent recurrence having been repeated, the government's seriousness is being tested. The Japan Times conveyed residents' anxiety and anger: “everyone is angry.” In Okinawa, about 6,000 U.S. military personnel are said to have been arrested since the return to the mainland in 1972 (Al Jazeera). In 2024 the figure was 80, the highest in 20 years.

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On Oct. 10, U.S. President Trump criticized President Zelensky and said Ukraine “needs a new leader” (Jiji Press, NHK, Mainichi Shimbun). The Mainichi Shimbun reported that U.S. dissatisfaction over attacks on Russian refineries lies behind it. Zelensky proposed that he would stop attacks on refineries if Russia stopped attacking energy facilities (Reuters), and told U.S. network ABC that he would hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire. The German government backed Zelensky. Afterward, Trump wrote on his own social media that an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine would take effect immediately and that both sides had agreed (Reuters). Zelensky spoke with leaders from Europe and elsewhere and said he supports the ceasefire (NHK). Confirmation from the Russian side has not been obtained.

It is unusual for a U.S. president to raise the replacement of another country's leader, and it affects the outlook for aid to Ukraine. If attacks on energy facilities stop, the supply and prices of crude oil and diesel will also be affected.

Japan has supported Ukraine alongside Europe. If the energy-facility ceasefire proceeds, international prices for crude oil and diesel could fall. However, the substance of the agreement needs to be confirmed.

To end the war, the United States needs to pressure the parties and shape a ceasefire. An agreement to stop attacks on energy facilities is a realistic first step.

Publicly calling for the replacement of another country's leader is interference in its internal affairs. There is a risk that Ukraine will be pushed into a ceasefire on unfavorable terms.

Today's number is “60 days.” It is the length of ceasefire that Zelensky named as a condition for elections. What to watch: whether Russia accepts the energy ceasefire on the same terms, when it expires, and whether the United States increases pressure on Ukraine.

Reuters · Jiji Press · NHK · Mainichi Shimbun · The Japan Times (Oct. 10–11. Remarks from Jiji Press, NHK and the Mainichi Shimbun, ceasefire announcement and proposal from Reuters)

World · UkrainePress ✓ 6 outlets · the “energy ceasefire” is not yet confirmed by the Russian side

Trump: “Ukraine Needs a New President.” Zelensky Proposes Halting Refinery Attacks; Trump Announces Agreement on an “Energy Ceasefire”

On the 10th, U.S. President Trump criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky and said Ukraine “needs a new leader” (Jiji Press, NHK, Mainichi Shimbun). The Mainichi Shimbun reported that the United States is dissatisfied with Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and is demanding that they stop. Zelensky proposed that he would stop attacks on refineries if Russia stopped attacking energy facilities (Reuters). He told U.S. network ABC that he would hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire (Reuters). The German government backed Zelensky (Reuters).

Afterward, Trump wrote on his own social media that an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine would take effect immediately and that both sides had agreed (Reuters). Zelensky spoke with leaders from Europe and elsewhere, including Canadian Prime Minister Carney, and said he supports the ceasefire (NHK, Zelensky's social media). However, confirmation from the Russian side and the details of the scope and duration have not yet been confirmed.

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In brief

U.S. closes on Friday (the 9th): the S&P 500 at 7,811.54 (+0.59%), WTI crude at $91.85 (+0.39%), gold at $4,216.3 (+1.43%)Exchange closing data
The Nikkei Stock Average closed at ¥69,030.92 (−0.02%) on the 9th. Tokyo's market is closed on the 12th for Sports Day and reopens on the 13thTokyo Stock Exchange holiday schedule
A boat carrying migrants capsized off Djibouti, leaving 109 dead and more than 116 missing, including 15 childrenJiji · Reuters
Polish police warn of a possible plot to attack Prime Minister Tusk and othersAP · Reuters
The U.S. Justice Department is investigating a TV network on suspicion of violating antitrust law over a suspension of coverage of the presidentMainichi · Reuters
In Toyota, Aichi Prefecture, a man in his 50s was seriously injured when a bear attacked him at his front doorNHK · Asahi
Kipchoge wins a marathon, his first since 2023The Japan Times
Palestinian parliamentary elections postponed again, to September 2027, on the same day as the Palestinian Authority chairmanship electionAsahi · Jiji · Mainichi

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Unverified — what we could not confirm

“Trump has decided to have U.S. forces join a counterstrike to defend Saudi Arabia.” The Asahi Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun reported that Trump said he would “consider” it. A decision has not been confirmed.

“Russia has also agreed to the energy ceasefire.” Trump wrote that both sides agreed, and Ukraine expressed its support. Confirmation from the Russian side has not yet been obtained.

“Agriculture Minister Yana will resign soon.” The prime minister denied dismissal, and Mr. Yana also denies he will resign. Some inside the Liberal Democratic Party are calling for his resignation (Jiji Press). His explanation at the Budget Committee at the start of the week is the focus.

Influencer watch

Pavel Durov Telegram · 10/11Wrote that AI tools now let designers craft their ideas, not just draw them, and that the mockup era is over.
Michael Saylor X · 10/11Hinted that Strategy will grow its stash of about 848,000 bitcoin (Bitcoin News).
Donald Trump Truth Social · 10/11Wrote that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is effective immediately and that both parties have agreed.

Statements as posted, not fact-checked.

What to watch today

Today, Mon 10/12Identification of who carried out the Saudi airport attack, and whether Trump decides to join a counterstrike · oil (WTI) and gold moves at the start of the week · confirmation of what the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire contains · the fate of Agriculture Minister Yana and the start of the Budget Committee · Japan-U.S. consultations over the ICC sanctions · the opening of the Major League NLCS and Game 3 of the Pacific League CS · Tokyo market closed (Sports Day).This week13th Tokyo market reopens · 14th opening of the Central League CS Final Stage (Koshien, NPB schedule) · this week Pope Leo XIV's lung surgery (Reuters) · 18th voting and ballot counting in the Kusatsu, Shiga mayoral election · Nov. 9 opening of COP31 (Jiji Press).For readersIf you plan to travel to the Middle East, check the Foreign Ministry's overseas safety information and airlines' operating information. Check gasoline and kerosene prices against the displays at nearby stores.

Glossary · dotted words — politics, markets, law and international affairs terms explained in the context of the story. The list builds up every day.

INSIDEAttack on Riyadh Airport Kills 12, Injures Over 300; Houthi Role Suspected, Trump Says He Will “Consider” Joining RetaliationWorld · Middle EastICC Sanctions: Assembly Bureau Speaking for 21 Countries Including Japan Demands “Immediate Withdrawal”; Foreign Minister Motegi Phones Rubio and President AkaneWorld · International LawDeNA Sweeps Giants in Two Games to Reach CS Final Stage; Shohei Ohtani Faces League Championship Series From the 12th, Munetaka Murakami's White Sox EliminatedSportsMurder Case Involving U.S. Soldier in Okinawa: Foreign Minister Motegi Conveys “Regret” to U.S. Side; U.S. Military Begins Joint Patrols, Local Voices Doubt “Effectiveness”Society · SecurityTrump: “Ukraine Needs a New President.” Zelensky Proposes Halting Refinery Attacks; Trump Announces Agreement on an “Energy Ceasefire”World · Ukraine