National falls to 25.9% in RNZ-Reid Research poll, its weakest since 2020, with Opportunity holding the balance
An RNZ-Reid Research poll put National on 25.9%, down 3.2 points since August and its weakest since 2020; Labour on 30.8%, down 1.4 points for a third straight fall; the Greens on 14.8% and Opportunity on 5.5% (interest.co.nz, ODT, Reuters). Reid surveyed 1000 eligible voters online from 24 September to 1 October, margin of error up to 3.1 points. Interest.co.nz gave Labour 37 seats, the Greens 18 and Opportunity 6, together 61 of 120. The ODT said neither bloc has a majority without Opportunity, which it counted at seven MPs, and that Luxon has ruled out working with it.
With one party near the 5% threshold able to decide the government, small shifts matter more than usual.
Your party vote counts most this year. A party that clears 5% or wins an electorate gets seats.
Labour and the Greens say the poll shows people want change.
National says polls move and points to its campaign launch.
Treat any single poll as a snapshot. The Reid and Verian polls disagree on Labour and National by two to three points, and both are within error margins.
DailyDrop New Zealand edition No. 3 · Morning · WED., OCT. 7, 2026