An RNZ-Reid Research poll put National on 25.9%, down 3.2 points since August and its weakest since 2020; Labour on 30.8%, down 1.4 points for a third straight fall; the Greens on 14.8% and Opportunity on 5.5% (interest.co.nz, ODT, Reuters). Reid surveyed 1000 eligible voters online from 24 September to 1 October, margin of error up to 3.1 points. Interest.co.nz gave Labour 37 seats, the Greens 18 and Opportunity 6, together 61 of 120. The ODT said neither bloc has a majority without Opportunity, which it counted at seven MPs, and that Luxon has ruled out working with it.
With one party near the 5% threshold able to decide the government, small shifts matter more than usual.
Your party vote counts most this year. A party that clears 5% or wins an electorate gets seats.
Labour and the Greens say the poll shows people want change.
National says polls move and points to its campaign launch.
Treat any single poll as a snapshot. The Reid and Verian polls disagree on Labour and National by two to three points, and both are within error margins.
interest.co.nz, Otago Daily Times, Reuters (6 Oct 2026)
National falls to 25.9% in RNZ-Reid Research poll, its weakest since 2020, with Opportunity holding the balance
Labour leads on 30.8% but has fallen for a third poll in a row. The Greens are on 14.8% and Opportunity on 5.5%, enough to decide who governs.
A poll for RNZ by Reid Research put National on 25.9%, down 3.2 points since August and its lowest result since the 2020 election, according to interest.co.nz, the Otago Daily Times and a Reuters report. Labour was on 30.8%, down 1.4 points for a third consecutive fall. The Greens were on 14.8% and Opportunity on 5.5%, up 0.2 points and above the 5% party-vote threshold for a second poll running. Reid Research surveyed 1000 eligible voters online between 24 September and 1 October, with a margin of error of up to 3.1 points.
Interest.co.nz translated the figures into 37 seats for Labour, 18 for the Greens and 6 for Opportunity, a combined 61 in a 120-seat Parliament, enough to govern. The Otago Daily Times reported that neither the current coalition nor a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori combination would have a majority without Opportunity, whose projected MPs it counted at seven. It noted that Luxon has previously ruled out working with the party. The late-September 1News-Verian poll had National and Labour level on 28%, with the Greens at a record 16%, so the polls do not agree on who leads.