China’s exports rose 36.3 percent in September from a year earlier, measured in dollars (AP, Al Jazeera, Clarín, FinancialJuice). Analysts had expected 25.5 percent on average (FinancialJuice). In yuan terms the gain is 29.6 percent (FinancialJuice, Infobae, La Vanguardia). According to Clarín imports grew 31 percent, and the Financial Times attributes this partly to expensive oil. The Financial Times, Zeit Online and La Vanguardia name the AI boom as the engine, above all chips and electric cars. According to Bloomberg the trade surplus is approaching 940 billion dollars; Handelsblatt and Boursorama see the one-trillion mark within reach. According to Handelsblatt exports to Germany and the EU keep growing.
China exports a lot because domestic demand is weak (Clarín, Handelsblatt). This raises the pressure on trading partners, who complain of a growing imbalance. At its annual meeting in Bangkok the International Monetary Fund called on China to depend less on exports (El Economista).
Whether and how Switzerland is affected does not emerge from the reports. For companies that trade with China or the EU, it is worth watching the talks in Brussels.
The boom shows the strength of Chinese industry and the worldwide demand for hardware for artificial intelligence.
A surplus of this size is an imbalance that is likely to provoke countermeasures from trading partners.
Established are the gains of 36.3 percent in dollars and 29.6 percent in yuan, both per the customs authority. The chip figure from the South China Morning Post (45 billion dollars, plus 136 percent) is not supported by a second outlet. We are watching the EU’s reaction and whether the AI boom will carry exports through the autumn as well.
AP · Al Jazeera · New York Times · Reuters · Financial Times · Bloomberg · Handelsblatt · Zeit Online · Clarín · FinancialJuice · La Vanguardia · BFMTV · El Economista (Oct. 14)
China’s exports grow 36 percent in September, trade surplus heads toward one trillion dollars
The customs authority reports the biggest jump since the pandemic, driven by the boom in artificial intelligence. Handelsblatt expects more pressure on EU negotiators ahead of the summit in Brussels.
China’s exports rose 36.3 percent in September from a year earlier, measured in dollars (AP, Al Jazeera, Clarín, FinancialJuice). Analysts had expected 25.5 percent on average (FinancialJuice). According to Al Jazeera it is the biggest jump since the Covid pandemic, and the New York Times speaks of the fastest growth in almost any month since the end of the financial crisis. In yuan terms exports gained 29.6 percent (FinancialJuice, Infobae, La Vanguardia); the difference between the two figures is explained by the yuan-dollar exchange rate. The customs authority published the data on Wednesday morning local time. According to Clarín imports grew 31 percent; Reuters writes that they accelerated, and the Financial Times attributes this partly to high oil prices. The Financial Times, Zeit Online and La Vanguardia name the AI boom as the engine, above all chips and electric cars. The South China Morning Post puts chip exports at 45 billion dollars, a rise of 136 percent; no second outlet supports this figure. For the first nine months the customs authority reports an export gain of 16.4 percent in yuan (FinancialJuice). According to FinancialJuice its deputy minister said the outlook for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, but uncertainties remain for the full year, including from geopolitical conflicts.
The trade surplus is thus heading toward a record (New York Times). Bloomberg writes that it is approaching 940 billion dollars; Handelsblatt and Boursorama see the one-trillion mark within reach. One reason is weak domestic demand, which makes China bet on exports (Clarín, Handelsblatt). In line with this, China’s inflation in September was 0.9 percent, against an expected 1.0 percent (n-tv, only this outlet). In a commentary Handelsblatt notes that Beijing is thereby making itself dependent on demand that will not last forever. AP points out that pressure is growing to balance trade again. Europe feels it especially: exports to Germany and the EU kept rising (Handelsblatt), and BFMTV cites a deficit of EU countries with China of 247 billion euros for the first nine months, up 26 percent. At its annual meeting in Bangkok the International Monetary Fund called on China to depend less on exports (El Economista). The South China Morning Post writes that Chinese electric-car makers are at the same time hit by measures from Brussels and Beijing, namely an EU quota and the cut of a value-added tax rebate; analysts therefore lowered their profit forecasts. ASML finance chief Roger Dassen warned, according to De Telegraaf, that tighter US export restrictions would not stop China’s technological rise. Whether and how Switzerland is affected does not emerge from the reports. Today we are watching reactions from the EU and whether the AI boom will carry exports through the autumn as well.