Maritime safety administrations across China announced live-fire and other drills in 5 sea areas of the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea and South China Sea from the 12th to the 17th (Liberty Times). The Japan Times reports that the area closest to Taiwan is off Zhejiang; the Straits Times says none of the announced areas lies around Taiwan. Defense Minister Wellington Koo said the armed forces will “assess the enemy broadly” and keep a close watch, and condemned the drills as an exercise meant to stir up unease. The Maritime and Port Bureau said these waters are outside Taiwan's search-and-rescue region and have no impact on waters around Taiwan. The Mainland Affairs Council and the DPP caucus also criticized Beijing for announcing drills after President Lai's National Day speech. The same day, China's foreign ministry sanctioned two ministers, of Paraguay and Belize, and our Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned it.
Live-fire drills come with navigational warning zones that affect the routes of ships and aircraft, and they are often read as political signals. The announced areas are scattered along China's coast and do not include the area around Taiwan, unlike the drills around Taiwan in August 2022; but the timing follows right after the National Day speech, and all sides are watching whether Beijing will add moves around Taiwan.
Most people's daily lives are not affected. Those in shipping, fishing or aviation should watch the maritime authority's navigational warnings and Ministry of National Defense announcements; before going to sea, you can also check the latest notices with the Coast Guard Administration.
Taiwan's officials mostly stress that they have things closely in hand and ask the public to be reassured, while saying that added defense investment is meant to deter; some also argue it should be stated plainly that Beijing's drills are a political response to the National Day speech.
Beijing describes its actions as routine drills and criticizes Taiwan's cooperation with other countries; others caution against equating ordinary drills with a new round of large-scale exercises aimed at Taiwan before the coordinates and scale are known.
For now we can only confirm the dates, the number of sea areas and the official reactions. To judge what this firing means, three things are needed: the full coordinates published by the maritime authority, the Ministry of National Defense's reports on PLA aircraft and ship movements, and whether any new announced areas are added before the 17th. Until those come out, we do not equate it with a blockade or an encirclement drill.
Liberty Times · Japan Times · Straits Times · CNA · PTS (Oct. 12)
PLA to hold live-fire drills in 5 sea areas for 6 days from the 12th; Wellington Koo condemns “stirring up unease”; China sanctions Paraguayan and Belizean ministers the same day
The announced areas cover the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea and South China Sea; the one closest to Taiwan is off Zhejiang, and none lies around Taiwan. The Ministry of National Defense says it will “assess the enemy broadly” and keep monitoring.
Several maritime safety administrations across China (the government agencies responsible for the safety of ship navigation) have announced live-fire and other drills in 5 sea areas of the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea and South China Sea, running 6 days from the 12th to the 17th (Liberty Times). The Japan Times and Straits Times report that the area closest to Taiwan is off China's Zhejiang Province and that none of the announced areas lies around Taiwan. Defense Minister Wellington Koo said on the 12th that the armed forces will “assess the enemy broadly” and keep a close watch, and condemned the drills as an exercise meant to stir up unease (Liberty Times, Straits Times). The Maritime and Port Bureau (the maritime authority under the Ministry of Transportation and Communications) responded that these waters are outside Taiwan's search-and-rescue region and that it assesses no impact on waters around Taiwan (Liberty Times). Live-fire drills are the military practicing with real ammunition. The announcements were issued separately by several local administrations, so outlets' descriptions of the waters may differ slightly; during the announced period, ships and aircraft in the area must stay clear. The basis for coordinates and times is the navigational warnings (notices the maritime authority issues to ships); we have not yet found the full coordinates of the 5 areas, so we do not relay them here. Unlike the large-scale live-fire drills around Taiwan in August 2022, this announcement does not place any area around Taiwan, and there is currently no evidence that the firing targets Taiwan; we did not find the latest counts of PLA aircraft and PLA ships.
Political reactions have different emphases. Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Shen Yu-chung, at a forum on the 12th, condemned the CCP's announcement of drills right after Double Ten as a “hegemonic mindset” and said China “repeatedly becomes a regional troublemaker” (Liberty Times). Chuang Jui-hsiung, caucus whip of the DPP caucus, criticized China for announcing live-fire drills right after President Lai's National Day speech as a “knee-jerk reaction” (Liberty Times). Another line is the maritime gray zone: Reuters earlier reported that the CCP's maritime militia boats appeared in waters off eastern Taiwan for the first time in August; answering legislators on the 12th, Koo said that if militia boats or coast guard vessels cross the line, the Coast Guard Administration is the main force to expel them and enforce the law, with the navy assisting under a support agreement (CNA). The same day, China's foreign ministry announced sanctions on Paraguay's Minister of Information and Communications Technology Villate and Belize's foreign minister Fonseca, saying their remarks about China harmed China's interests; our Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned this as interference in other countries' sovereignty and a despicable tactic (CNA, PTS, Liberty Times). Scholars told PTS this is an escalation of diplomatic pressure, an attempt to intimidate through lawfare, but it is hard to enforce and the real effect may be limited (PTS). On defense, Koo also said that the military's “Tom Cruise clause” to retain veteran pilots lets pilots who have served 14 years extend their service to age 58, with 72 additional posts now added (PTS); the Executive Yuan will speed up review of the related amendments (Liberty Times). It is important to separate the two: the dates and sea areas in the announcements are fact, while intent is interpretation. Taiwanese officials link it to the National Day speech, but we found no public explanation from the Chinese side for this firing.