Brazil held the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, October 4. With 99.99% of votes counted, the TSE gave Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16% (Chequeado). Nobody topped half plus one, so it will be decided on October 25. Abstention was 21.08%. Earlier counts gave slightly different figures: 47.15% to 45.02% (Blu Radio) and 47.31% to 44.83% (NTN24). Lula said he believed he would win in the first round (iProfesional). De la Espriella wrote on X in support of Bolsonaro, and Milei congratulated him (Publimetro, Blu Radio, NTN24).
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a neighbor of Colombia in the Amazon. Whoever governs there carries weight in regional trade, in investors’ mood toward emerging markets and in the continent’s political alliances. A Colombian president speaking out in favor of a candidate is also an unusual diplomatic gesture.
If you export to or import from Brazil, or if you have dollar debts, the runoff is worth following: an unexpected result can move the dollar and the stock market in the region. For everyone else, it is a gauge of the political shift being debated in Latin America.
For supporters of Bolsonaro and De la Espriella, the result shows fatigue with the left and opens a regional alliance on security and trade.
For supporters of Lula, the gap is narrow, his vote remains high, and a foreign president’s explicit backing of a candidate can cost diplomatic tension.
The gap is under two points and there are three weeks of campaigning left. Watch the runoff polls, whom the eliminated candidates back, and how the dollar and the stock market open in Colombia today. A sitting president’s statement on another country’s election deserves follow-up if Brasília responds.
Chequeado, Blu Radio, NTN24, Publimetro, iProfesional (Oct. 4–5, 2026)
Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round in Brazil with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%, and a runoff will be held on October 25
With almost all polling stations counted, no candidate topped 50%. President Abelardo de la Espriella, who backs Bolsonaro, wrote on X that “the real change is to defeat the left.”
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro came first in the presidential first round on Sunday, October 4, with 47.03% of valid votes to 45.16% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The figure comes from the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) with 99.99% of votes counted, according to Chequeado. Since nobody passed 50%, the two will go to a runoff on October 25. The abstention rate was 21.08%. Partial counts varied: Blu Radio published 47.15% against 45.02% with 98.64% of the ballot boxes, and NTN24 47.31% against 44.83%.
The result was a surprise because earlier polls gave Lula the lead, and he himself said, according to iProfesional, that he believed he would win in the first round. In Colombia, De la Espriella posted on X that “today my heart is with Brazil” and that the real change is to defeat the left (Publimetro, Blu Radio). Javier Milei also congratulated Bolsonaro (Blu Radio, NTN24). DailyDrop did not find a later reaction from Lula or Monday market data, so the effect on the dollar and the stock market in Colombia remains to be seen.