5,505.65BEL 20 · Fri., Oct. 2 close · −0.05%

DailyDrop.

1.1225EUR/USD · ECB reference rate Fri., Oct. 2 · −0.65%
BEL 205,505.65▼0.05%10/2EUR/USD1.1225▼0.65%10/2S&P 5007,722.72▲0.73%10/2WTI$91.11▼1.90%10/2Gold$4,162.30▼1.00%10/2
Politics · Federal budgetPress ✓ 2 outlets · figures according to The Brussels Times

Nine hours of talks on Sunday, still no deal on the 10 billion: labor costs and value-added tax remain stumbling blocks

The federal De Wever government again looked on Sunday for at least €10 billion by 2029. Talks continue in technical working groups. A deal by Tuesday’s State of the Union on October 13 is not a given.

Prime Minister Bart De Wever and his coalition partners deliberated for about nine hours on Sunday, October 4, over a budget in which at least €10 billion has to be found, The Brussels Times reports. The prime minister closed the meeting at around 9 p.m. All proposals were discussed, but the differences remained too large for a deal. In its live blog, VRT likewise headlined that the differences are “still too large” and that talks continue in working groups with experts from all parties.

The biggest stumbling blocks are value-added tax and labor costs. According to The Brussels Times, MR and Vooruit do not want measures that make everyday purchases more expensive, while N-VA and CD&V do not want to go back on the agreed cut in labor costs, which costs the budget about €2 billion net. De Wever has to present the revised budget to the Chamber on October 13. By October 15 at the latest, Belgium must submit its budget to the European Commission. The government wants to avoid starting 2027 once again on provisional twelfths, as in 2025 and 2026. DailyDrop has not yet seen an official figure on the size of a possible deal.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take
By the numbers
10 billioneuros to be found by 2029, the government says
9 hoursSunday’s talks lasted, until about 9 p.m.
2 billioneuros: net cost of the agreed lower labor costs
Politics · BrusselsPress ✓ 5 outlets · figures according to the government

Brussels government strikes deal on 2027 budget on Sunday evening: deficit of €719 million

Minister-President Boris Dilliès (MR) and Finance Minister Dirk De Smedt (Anders) announced a deal on the Brussels budget for 2027 before midnight on Sunday evening, report VRT NWS, The Brussels Times, BX1, Paris Match and Business AM. The deficit falls to €719 million. According to Dilliès, the region started out with more than 1.3 billion; other reports put it at 1.6 billion for 2025. Vacancies will no longer be filled automatically, which is meant to yield €74 million a year in personnel costs and 39 million in operating costs.

There will be no across-the-board tax increase, Dilliès said. From the second half of 2027, small city cars and zero-emission vehicles are exempt from the annual road tax, and the planned fare increase at the MIVB is off. N-VA calls the budget “built on castles in the air.” The negotiations on October 3 and 4 also revealed tensions between De Smedt and Mobility Minister Elke Van den Brandt (Groen).

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take
Word of the day
Provisional twelfthsBudget

Emergency arrangement when no budget has been passed: the government may spend at most one twelfth of the previous year’s expenditure per month. Belgium worked this way in 2025 and 2026.


Politics · JusticePress ✓ 3 outlets · lawyers deny specific accusations

Federal police investigate Guy Verhofstadt on behalf of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office

The federal police are investigating former prime minister and ex-MEP Guy Verhofstadt on behalf of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), VRT NWS and Belga reported on Saturday, October 3. The news first appeared in the weekly magazine Knack, which VRT confirmed. The investigation is partly about how Verhofstadt directed interns in the European Parliament during his time as leader of the liberal ALDE group (2009-2019). The European Anti-Fraud Office OLAF is also involved. The EPPO declined to comment.

His lawyers say that OLAF only asked for information about the supervision of a few interns, that Verhofstadt was not personally involved in it, that there are no specific accusations against him and that he has not yet been heard. According to them, he is cooperating fully. Estonia’s ERR, citing Politico, writes that the Belgian federal prosecutor’s office did not respond immediately. An investigation is not a prosecution, and there is no evidence of wrongdoing.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take
World · ElectionsPress ✓ 5 outlets · result according to CNBC and NPR

Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula head to a second round on October 25

Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, October 4: about 47% to 45% for President Lula, report CNBC and NPR. Nobody won an absolute majority, so a second round follows on October 25 (CNBC, NBC News, NPR). With about 85% of the votes cast counted, the gap was still larger, 48.5% to 43.5%, but it narrowed as the count progressed.

The polls the day before had the two level: Datafolha had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 40%, and Gerp had Bolsonaro ahead. Bolsonaro spoke of “the end of the era of the Workers’ Party”; Lula said he is starting a new campaign. Jair Bolsonaro himself is barred from running until 2030. For Belgian readers, Brazil is above all a signal about the advance of the right in a major emerging economy. DailyDrop sees no direct consequences for Belgium in the first round yet.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take

World · EnergyPress ✓ 5 outlets · conditions according to Ghalibaf

Strait of Hormuz stays closed until Iran gets seven conditions, OPEC+ leaves November quotas unchanged

The seven core countries of OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) left their production targets for November unchanged on Sunday, October 4, at 31.01 million barrels a day, report The National (AFP), ARY News and Kuwait Times. Most members are pumping below their quotas because exports from the Gulf are disrupted. The next meeting is on November 1.

Since fighting between the US and Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, according to AFP. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said on Sunday that it will stay closed until the US meets seven conditions tied to the June memorandum (Gulf News, Oman Observer). They include lifting the naval blockade and releasing frozen assets; the list differs from outlet to outlet. For Belgian households, the price of energy is what counts: according to a VRT NWS investigation of October 2, gas and electricity cost more than €900 more than in March.

Open the story and DailyDrop’s take
In brief
  • BEL 20 closed 0.05% lower on Friday at 5,505.65 points, its fifth decline in a row; argenx lost 3.11%La Libre, DH (Belga)
  • ECB reference rate for the euro: $1.1225 on Friday, against 1.1298 a day earlierECB
  • S&P 500 7,722.72 (+0.73%), WTI $91.11 (−1.90%), gold $4,162.3 (−1.00%) on Fridaymarket data
  • Tennessee: the director of the prison system resigns after the failed execution of Christa PikeVRT NWS
  • Dealers sell drugs in Brussels through fake or AI-generated listings on Google MapsVRT NWS
  • Wallonia: Letec scraps the €12 annual pass for young people from February 1, 2027Econostrum
  • The Nobel Prize in Medicine is announced today, the start of Nobel weekNobel Committee
Seven minutes every morning, one front page

Unverified — what we could not confirm

“Saudi Arabia carried out hundreds of air strikes in Yemen.” So claim the Houthis, according to VRT on Saturday, October 3. DailyDrop found no independent confirmation of the number; Reuters does report that Riyadh is preparing a campaign.
“Bolsonaro won the first round by a wide margin.” With about 85% counted he led 48.5% to 43.5%, but the final result was about 47% to 45% (NBC News, CNBC).
“Zara has publicly apologized for the costume.” The reports contradict each other: one outlet says the company gave no public statement, another that customers received a standard apology (Jewish News, NSS Magazine).
Glossary · dotted words — economics, law, security and science terms explained in the context of the story. The list grows every day.
INSIDENine hours of talks on Sunday, still no deal on the 10 billion: labor costs and value-added tax remain stumbling blocksPolitics · Federal budgetBrussels government strikes deal on 2027 budget on Sunday evening: deficit of €719 millionPolitics · BrusselsFederal police investigate Guy Verhofstadt on behalf of the European Public Prosecutor’s OfficePolitics · JusticeBrazil: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula head to a second round on October 25World · ElectionsStrait of Hormuz stays closed until Iran gets seven conditions, OPEC+ leaves November quotas unchangedWorld · Energy