US President Donald Trump wrote on Sunday afternoon on Truth Social that an energy ceasefire was in force effective immediately in the war between Russia and Ukraine; both sides had agreed, he said, and it should not be broken (Reuters, BBC, Bloomberg, 24 heures, RTS). What is meant is a renunciation of attacks on energy facilities; he did not name duration or monitoring. Zelensky said, according to Axios, that the announcement was news to him, and wrote later on Telegram that it was good news if it became reality; Kyiv was waiting for details. There is no confirmation from Moscow as of Sunday evening. Shortly after the announcement Russia hit a power plant in Kharkiv, according to Ukrainian reports (Reuters, The Hill, Blick). The Financial Times reports that Washington is threatening to halt arms deliveries if Ukraine keeps attacking Russian refineries. In the morning Zelensky had offered to stop these strikes if Russia ended its attacks on energy supply.
Both sides hit the adversary’s energy: Russia Ukraine’s electricity and heating, Ukraine Russia’s fuel supply and revenues. A real ceasefire would relieve civilians and dampen the oil price. A merely claimed ceasefire, by contrast, blurs who is keeping to what.
For Switzerland the energy price matters most: diesel and heating oil follow the price of crude oil with a delay. Switzerland generally adopts sanctions from the EU; whether anything changes in the stance of Washington or Brussels is open.
A limited ceasefire is a first step that relieves cities and can open negotiations.
Without agreement from Moscow and without monitoring, the announcement is worthless and puts Kyiv under pressure to stop its own strikes.
What is supported is Trump’s post, not an agreement. We are watching three things: whether the Kremlin agrees, whether anyone monitors compliance and whether Washington makes good on the threat to halt arms deliveries. The oil price on Monday is a mood indicator, not an answer to these questions.
Reuters · BBC · Bloomberg · 24 heures · RTS · Watson · Blick · The Hill · Financial Times (Oct. 11)
Trump announces an “energy ceasefire”, Kyiv waits for details. Shortly afterwards Russia hits a power plant in Kharkiv
The US president writes on Truth Social that both sides have agreed. Zelensky says it is news to him; there is no confirmation from Moscow as of Sunday evening. At the same time, according to the Financial Times, Washington is threatening to halt arms deliveries.
US President Donald Trump declared on Sunday afternoon on his platform Truth Social that an energy ceasefire was in force “effective immediately” in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides had agreed, he said, and it should not be broken. Reuters, BBC, Bloomberg, 24 heures and RTS report this in agreement. What is meant is a mutual renunciation of attacks on power plants, refineries and other energy facilities. Trump said nothing about duration or monitoring. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, according to Axios, that the announcement was news to him. Later he wrote on Telegram that it was good news for everyone, that what mattered was that it become reality, and that Kyiv was waiting for details from Washington (Reuters). There is no confirmation from Moscow as of Sunday evening; according to Watson, even Russians knew nothing about it. Already in the morning Zelensky had offered to stop Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries if Russia ends its attacks on Ukrainian energy supply (Reuters, 24 heures, RSI). He told the US broadcaster ABC that he would organize elections if Russia agreed to a ceasefire of 60 days. On Saturday Trump had demanded that Ukraine needs a new president. Germany then stood behind Zelensky, according to Reuters, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen supported his call for a ceasefire, according to FinancialJuice.
A little later Zelensky reported that Russia had hit a power plant in Kharkiv and was continuing its attacks (Reuters, The Hill, Blick). The extent of the damage is not confirmed. According to Reuters, six people died in Russian attacks on two Ukrainian cities. At the same time pressure on Kyiv is growing: the Financial Times reports that Washington is threatening to block arms deliveries if Ukraine keeps attacking Russian refineries. In the US Congress there is resistance to the diesel agreement with Moscow that Trump announced on Friday and that initially provides for 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel. Lawmakers of both parties say, according to the Financial Times, that it finances Putin’s war machine and violates US law; an influential Republican senator considers it possibly unlawful (Reuters). Russia, too, reports attacks: the internet group Yandex shut down a data center in the Vladimir region after a drone attack (Reuters), and at Moscow airports operations were suspended because of drone alerts, according to Watson. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney support an energy ceasefire, according to FinancialJuice, and the EU Commission wants to provide more money for Ukraine’s drones and missiles. For Switzerland the energy price matters most: the oil grade WTI closed on Friday at $91.85. Switzerland generally adopts sanctions from the EU; whether anything changes there is open. The NATO commander in Europe spoke, according to Bloomberg, of “windows of opportunity” to end the war. Today we are watching whether the Kremlin confirms the ceasefire, who monitors it and whether the oil price reacts on Monday. Without confirmation from Moscow it remains, for now, a claim by Trump.