On Sunday, Oct. 11, at around 4:30 p.m. in Paris, Donald Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, “effective immediately” (Reuters, PBS, NBC News, CNA). Volodymyr Zelensky replied that it was “news to me” (NBC News), then that Kyiv was waiting for the details of the American proposals (Reuters). A Ukrainian power plant was hit after the announcement (ABC News, Inquirer), in Kharkiv according to Mr. Zelensky (Yahoo), and Russian strikes killed six people in two cities (Reuters). Mr. Zelensky told ABC that he would hold elections if Russia accepted sixty days of full ceasefire, and that Kyiv would stop targeting refineries if Moscow stopped targeting energy (Reuters, CNA, Straits Times). In Washington, Republican senator Thom Tillis considers the Russian diesel deal possibly illegal (Reuters, Politico, USA Today), and a bipartisan group of senators is asking for it to be reversed (PBS). Germany backs Mr. Zelensky (Reuters) and Canada supports an energy truce (Inquirer).
A truce limited to energy would be the first concrete easing of tension in months, but for now it rests on an announcement from one side only. It affects the daily lives of Ukrainians as winter approaches, diesel and oil prices, and the solidity of the Western front, which Saturday’s call to change Ukraine’s president had already weakened.
A French reader will see it first at the pump and on the bill: a real halt to strikes on refineries and power plants would ease oil prices, but nothing guarantees it at this stage. A barrel of WTI ended Friday at $91.85, and oil was still climbing on Sunday evening (Bloomberg).
For Donald Trump’s supporters, an energy truce, even a partial one, is better than continued strikes on civilian networks, and the diesel deal relieves a tight market.
For his critics, Republicans included, the deal rewards Moscow with no verifiable return, may breach American sanctions, and the unilateral announcement exposes Kyiv, which was not warned.
As long as Moscow has not confirmed and the strikes go on, this is a statement, not a truce. Watch three things: an official response from the Kremlin, a verified halt to strikes on power plants within 48 hours, and the fate of the diesel deal in Congress, where Republicans are challenging it.
Reuters · PBS · NBC News · ABC News · CNA · Straits Times · Washington Post · Le Figaro (Oct. 11-12)
“Energy ceasefire”: Trump announces it, Zelensky says he knew nothing of it, and Russia hits a power plant. Senators call the diesel deal possibly illegal
On Sunday, Donald Trump claimed that Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to stop targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. Volodymyr Zelensky is waiting for the details, sets his conditions and offers sixty days of full truce in return for elections, while Russian strikes continue.
On Sunday, Oct. 11, at around 4:30 p.m. in Paris, Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire,” “effective immediately”: each side would stop targeting the other’s power plants, electricity grids and refineries (Reuters, PBS, NBC News, CNA). Volodymyr Zelensky said he was learning of the announcement: “it’s news to me” (NBC News). Kyiv then said it was waiting for the details of the American proposals, while noting that Russia was continuing its attacks (Reuters). Indeed, a power plant was hit after the announcement (ABC News, Inquirer), in Kharkiv according to Mr. Zelensky (Yahoo), and Russian strikes killed six people in two Ukrainian cities (Reuters). The sources consulted cite no official confirmation from Moscow. The Ukrainian president sets his conditions: Kyiv will stop targeting Russian refineries if Russia halts its attacks on energy (Reuters), and he will hold elections if Moscow accepts sixty days of full ceasefire (Reuters, CNA, Straits Times, Le Figaro). This is his answer to Donald Trump, who had demanded “a new president” for Ukraine on Saturday, the day after the Russian diesel deal. In Kyiv, residents refuse to let a foreign president dictate whom they should elect (Le Figaro).
In the United States, the diesel deal is contested. Republican senator Thom Tillis considers it possibly illegal (Reuters, Politico, USA Today), and a bipartisan group of senators is asking Mr. Trump to “back down” (PBS). The Washington Post notes criticism both in the United States and abroad. Germany backs Mr. Zelensky (Reuters), and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says he supports an energy truce (FinancialJuice, Inquirer). British Prime Minister Andy Burnham discussed the idea of a lasting energy truce with Mr. Trump (FinancialJuice, single source). For the European Union, lifting sanctions on Russian diesel gives Moscow “the means to wage war” (Le Monde), and American, Ukrainian and European negotiators had held talks in Miami (Le Monde, Reuters). According to the Financial Times, cited by Reuters, Washington is said to be threatening to block arms deliveries because of the strikes on refineries: single source, unconfirmed. On the markets, Wall Street ended Friday higher: the S&P 500 gained 0.59% to 7,811.54 points, the Nasdaq 0.64% to 27,366.17 and the Dow Jones 0.83% to 51,654.95. A barrel of WTI rose 0.39% to $91.85, and gold 1.43% to $4,216.3. On Sunday evening, oil was still climbing with the attacks in the Middle East (Bloomberg). The euro was worth $1.1206 according to Friday’s ECB reference rate. Friday’s CAC 40 close could not be confirmed with two sources; the Paris Bourse reopens this morning.