Prime Minister Mark Carney addressed Albertans directly in his Thanksgiving message on Monday, a week before the referendum on leaving Canada, according to CBC, CTV News, The Globe and Mail, the National Post, Al Jazeera, Radio-Canada and La Presse. He urged them to choose prosperity, said Canada is stronger together than apart and, in Radio-Canada's words, that "Canada works." The National Post said the message came ahead of a visit to the province. Radio-Canada reported that B.C. Premier David Eby also called his province and Alberta "stronger together" (single outlet). The Globe and Mail and Radio-Canada described the campaigns as entering the final stretch. We saw no poll, and the headlines do not say what follows in law after a yes vote.
A vote to leave would be the most serious test of the federation since Quebec's 1995 referendum, and it would raise questions about trade, debt, pensions and federal land that no modern Canadian government has had to settle. Even a no would shape the national debate, including in Quebec, where a sovereigntist party has just won power.
If you live in Alberta, check when and where you can vote in advance. Elsewhere, a result either way may move the dollar and Canadian stocks and reopen the unity debate in Quebec.
The federal case: Canada is stronger together, and Albertans' prosperity is best served inside the country. That is the message from Ottawa and, in Radio-Canada's report, from B.C.'s premier.
The separatist case, in outline, is that Alberta would do better governing itself. We did not see the campaign's own arguments in the headlines we read, so we do not quote them.
Two numbers decide this: turnout and the gap between yes and no. Ottawa's public plea shows it takes the vote seriously. Until a poll, or an official statement of what a result would trigger, appears, treat every forecast as a guess. The next things to watch are the advance-vote numbers and the prime minister's visit.
CBC · CTV News · The Globe and Mail · National Post · Al Jazeera · Global News · Radio-Canada · La Presse · Le Devoir (Oct. 12-13).
A week before Alberta votes on leaving Canada, Carney tells Albertans the country is stronger togetherA week before Alberta votes on leaving Canada, Carney tells Albertans the country is stronger together
His Thanksgiving message was aimed squarely at the province. Both campaigns are now in the final stretch, and advance voting is about to open.
Prime Minister Mark Carney used his Thanksgiving message on Monday to speak directly to Albertans, a week before they vote in the referendum on leaving Canada. CBC, CTV News, The Globe and Mail, the National Post, Al Jazeera, Radio-Canada and La Presse all carried it, and together they give its outline. He urged Albertans to choose prosperity, argued that Canada is stronger together than apart and, in Radio-Canada's French rendering, said that "Canada works." The National Post reported that the message came ahead of a visit he is expected to make to the province. Radio-Canada also reported that British Columbia Premier David Eby told listeners that his province and Alberta are "stronger together"; that is a single-outlet report. The Globe and Mail and Radio-Canada described the two campaigns as entering their final stretch, with speeches and rallies on both sides, and Global News ran a story headed "Advance voting opens as experts debate meaning of Alberta referendum results."
Two things are worth keeping apart. The first is what a prime minister's message can do. It is persuasion, not a rule: the outcome rests with Alberta voters, and the headlines we read do not say what would follow in law after a yes. For Quebec, Parliament's answer to that kind of question was the Clarity Act of 2000, passed after the 1995 referendum there. Nothing we read says whether it would apply to Alberta, and we will not guess. The second is that the vote is already echoing outside the province. The Globe and Mail reported that Quebec businesses are bracing for a renewed sovereignty debate, and La Presse published a piece on what it called Alberta's strange sovereigntist debate. This comes as the Parti Québécois, which has just won the Quebec election, prepares to govern; Le Devoir reported that its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP), and Christine Fréchette were to discuss the government transition on Tuesday. Our Monday edition reported that Premier Danielle Smith has ruled out a second vote if Albertans choose to stay, per CBC and Radio-Canada, and that former premier Jason Kenney warned low turnout could favour the separatists, per CTV News. In DailyDrop's reading, those two points explain the tone of Ottawa's message: if a second vote is off the table, a no has to be decisive, and turnout may matter more than persuasion at the margin. A Thanksgiving message is also a deliberate choice of platform, because it reaches people who are not following the campaign, which is exactly the audience a turnout argument needs. What we can say with confidence is that the campaign is in its last week, advance polls are opening, and Ottawa has chosen to make a public argument for staying. What we cannot yet say is how the vote is leaning: we saw no poll, and the experts Global News cites are still debating what a result would mean.
Word of the day
SecessionLawThe formal withdrawal of a region from a country. Canada's constitution has no written procedure for it. In 1998 the Supreme Court said, in a case about Quebec, that a clear majority on a clear question would oblige the other governments to negotiate, though not to agree.